Ace Bailey vs Mitchell Robinson: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Mitchell Robinson 2. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.4 projected fantasy points to 44.4 for Mitchell Robinson. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in points leagues (24.5 fantasy points a game to 22.2) and Mitchell Robinson in 9-cat leagues (160th against 174th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 8:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #140
- 24.5 FP/G, slot 12.08, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #174
- -3.1 z, slot 15.06
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #165
- 22.2 FP/G, slot 14.09
- 9-cat leagues
- #160
- -2.6 z, slot 14.04
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 24.5 fantasy points per game against 22.2, 140th on our board to 165th.
9-cat leagues: Mitchell Robinson instead, -2.6 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (160th to 174th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Mitchell Robinson in 5 (REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Mitchell Robinson produces more: 40.6 fantasy points to 32.5, on 19.7 minutes a night against 27.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Mitchell Robinson 2. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.4 projected fantasy points to 44.4 for Mitchell Robinson.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Mitchell Robinson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 24.5 | 22.2 |
| Minutes | 27.1 | 19.7 |
| PointsPTS | 13.2 | 5.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.4 | 8.1 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 43.6% | 71.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 72.5% | 37.8% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Mitchell Robinson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.5 | 40.6 |
| Points | 17.6 | 10.0 |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 14.9 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Blocks | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Mitchell Robinson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -1.9 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.6 | +1.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.2 | +1.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.2 | -1.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.0 | +1.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | -2.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +1.4 |
| Total | -3.1 | -2.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Mitchell Robinson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.6 (#198) | -0.7 (#93) |
| REB | -2.6 (#168) | -4.1 (#261) |
| AST | -2.3 (#169) | -1.3 (#117) |
| STL | -2.4 (#158) | -2.3 (#155) |
| BLK | -3.5 (#193) | -4.1 (#235) |
| 3PM | -3.4 (#198) | -0.8 (#85) |
| FG% | -2.2 (#133) | -4.9 (#248) |
| FT% | -2.8 (#171) | -0.3 (#71) |
| TO | -3.7 (#165) | -4.2 (#186) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Mitchell Robinson: 2 games (Tue @DET, Fri NYK).
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 23.4 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 24.5 on the board.
- Mitchell Robinson: 15.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 22.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Mitchell Robinson playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Mitchell Robinson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Mitchell Robinson?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 24.5 fantasy points per game against 22.2, 140th on our board to 165th. 9-cat leagues: Mitchell Robinson instead, -2.6 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (160th to 174th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Mitchell Robinson?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Mitchell Robinson in 5 (REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Mitchell Robinson?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Mitchell Robinson 2. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.4 projected fantasy points to 44.4 for Mitchell Robinson.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 8:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number