Ace Bailey vs Bobby Portis Jr.: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Bobby Portis Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 73.7 for Bobby Portis Jr.. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in points leagues (25.0 fantasy points a game to 24.6) and Bobby Portis Jr. in 9-cat leagues (138th against 159th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 9:54 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #135
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.03, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #159
- -2.7 z, slot 14.03
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #139
- 24.6 FP/G, slot 12.07, $3
- 9-cat leagues
- #138
- -2.3 z, slot 12.06, $3
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 24.6, 135th on our board to 139th.
9-cat leagues: Bobby Portis Jr. instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (138th to 159th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, BLK and FT%) and Bobby Portis Jr. in 3 (REB, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Bobby Portis Jr. produces more: 36.5 fantasy points to 32.8, on 24.2 minutes a night against 27.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Bobby Portis Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 73.7 for Bobby Portis Jr..
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Bobby Portis Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.0 | 24.6 |
| Minutes | 27.4 | 24.2 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 13.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 6.2 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 49.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 70.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 67 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Bobby Portis Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.8 | 36.5 |
| Points | 18.0 | 19.7 |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 9.3 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.6 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Bobby Portis Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | +0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | -1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.3 | -0.9 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | +0.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +1.0 |
| Total | -2.7 | -2.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Bobby Portis Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.3 (#179) | -1.8 (#154) |
| REB | -2.1 (#138) | -2.5 (#167) |
| AST | -1.9 (#147) | -1.3 (#112) |
| STL | -2.1 (#147) | -1.3 (#108) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#177) | -1.5 (#108) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#185) | -2.7 (#169) |
| FG% | -1.9 (#117) | -2.5 (#138) |
| FT% | -2.6 (#158) | -2.1 (#139) |
| TO | -3.3 (#146) | -3.4 (#151) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Bobby Portis Jr.: 3 games (Wed MIN, Fri DET, Sat @CHA), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 30.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
- Bobby Portis Jr.: 17.3 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 24.6 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Bobby Portis Jr. playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Bobby Portis Jr.?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 24.6, 135th on our board to 139th. 9-cat leagues: Bobby Portis Jr. instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (138th to 159th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Bobby Portis Jr.?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, BLK and FT%) and Bobby Portis Jr. in 3 (REB, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Bobby Portis Jr.?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Bobby Portis Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 73.7 for Bobby Portis Jr..
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 9:54 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number