Bub Carrington vs Robert Williams III: who to start in Week 1
Bub Carrington plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Robert Williams III 2. For that week alone, start Bub Carrington: 65.8 projected fantasy points to 43.7 for Robert Williams III. Over the season, Bub Carrington leads in points leagues (21.9 fantasy points a game to 21.8) and Robert Williams III in 9-cat leagues (107th against 246th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 8:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #177
- 21.9 FP/G, slot 15.09
- 9-cat leagues
- #246
- -4.6 z, slot 21.06
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #178
- 21.8 FP/G, slot 15.10
- 9-cat leagues
- #107
- -1.4 z, slot 9.11, $8
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Bub Carrington. 21.9 fantasy points per game against 21.8, 177th on our board to 178th.
9-cat leagues: Robert Williams III instead, -1.4 in summed z-scores against -4.6 (107th to 246th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Bub Carrington is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Robert Williams III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Robert Williams III produces more: 46.4 fantasy points to 29.1, on 17.0 minutes a night against 27.2. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Bub Carrington plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Robert Williams III 2. For that week alone, start Bub Carrington: 65.8 projected fantasy points to 43.7 for Robert Williams III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Bub Carrington | Robert Williams III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.9 | 21.8 |
| Minutes | 27.2 | 17.0 |
| PointsPTS | 10.7 | 6.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.2 | 7.2 |
| AssistsAST | 4.6 | 1.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Threes3PM | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| Field goal %FG% | 42.7% | 69.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.4% | 59.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 82 | 59 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Bub Carrington | Robert Williams III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 29.1 | 46.4 |
| Points | 14.1 | 13.7 |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 15.3 |
| Assists | 6.1 | 2.2 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 0.3 | 3.1 |
| Threes | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| Turnovers | 3.0 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Bub Carrington | Robert Williams III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.0 | -1.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.2 | +0.6 |
| AssistsAST | +0.5 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | -0.8 | -1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.0 | +1.6 |
| Threes3PM | +0.4 | -1.5 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | -0.5 | +1.4 |
| Total | -4.6 | -1.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Robert Williams III stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Bub Carrington | Robert Williams III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -3.7 (#260) | +0.3 (#51) |
| REB | -3.6 (#233) | -2.3 (#151) |
| AST | -5.2 (#296) | -0.1 (#56) |
| STL | -3.9 (#222) | -0.2 (#67) |
| BLK | -3.8 (#222) | -3.3 (#191) |
| 3PM | -5.1 (#284) | +0.1 (#57) |
| FG% | -4.0 (#207) | -3.3 (#172) |
| FT% | -4.5 (#245) | -0.8 (#85) |
| TO | -4.3 (#186) | -3.0 (#140) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Bub Carrington: 3 games (Wed MIL, Fri TOR, Sat @CHI), 1 back-to-back.
- Robert Williams III: 2 games (Wed PHX, Fri @SAC).
Recent games
- Bub Carrington: 22.2 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.9 on the board.
- Robert Williams III: 18.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Bub Carrington playing tonight? · Is Robert Williams III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Bub Carrington or Robert Williams III?
Points leagues: Bub Carrington. 21.9 fantasy points per game against 21.8, 177th on our board to 178th. 9-cat leagues: Robert Williams III instead, -1.4 in summed z-scores against -4.6 (107th to 246th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Bub Carrington or Robert Williams III?
Category by category, Bub Carrington is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Robert Williams III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Bub Carrington or Robert Williams III?
Bub Carrington plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Robert Williams III 2. For that week alone, start Bub Carrington: 65.8 projected fantasy points to 43.7 for Robert Williams III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 8:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number