Donovan Mitchell vs Luka Dončić: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Luka Dončić in both formats: 57.7 fantasy points a game to 44.3 in points leagues, and 6th against 7th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #12
- 44.3 FP/G, slot 1.12, $32
- 9-cat leagues
- #7
- +4.3 z, slot 1.07, $39
- Points leagues
- #2
- 57.7 FP/G, slot 1.02, $52
- 9-cat leagues
- #6
- +6.2 z, slot 1.06, $49
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Luka Dončić. 57.7 fantasy points per game against 44.3, 2nd on our board to 12th.
9-cat leagues: Luka Dončić again, +6.2 in summed z-scores against +4.3 (6th to 7th).
Category by category, Donovan Mitchell is ahead in 3 (FG%, FT% and TO) and Luka Dončić in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK and 3PM).
Per 36 minutes, Luka Dončić produces more: 58.1 fantasy points to 47.7, on 35.8 minutes a night against 33.5. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Donovan Mitchell plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Luka Dončić 3. For that week alone, start Luka Dončić: 173.2 projected fantasy points to 88.6 for Donovan Mitchell.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Donovan Mitchell | Luka Dončić |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 44.3 | 57.7 |
| Minutes | 33.5 | 35.8 |
| PointsPTS | 27.9 | 33.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.5 | 7.7 |
| AssistsAST | 5.7 | 8.3 |
| StealsSTL | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 48.3% | 47.6% |
| Free throw %FT% | 86.5% | 78.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 2.8 | 4.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 70 | 64 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Donovan Mitchell | Luka Dončić |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 47.7 | 58.1 |
| Points | 30.0 | 33.7 |
| Rebounds | 4.9 | 7.8 |
| Assists | 6.1 | 8.3 |
| Steals | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Blocks | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 3.4 | 4.0 |
| Turnovers | 3.0 | 4.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Donovan Mitchell | Luka Dončić |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +2.0 | +2.9 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.6 | +0.8 |
| AssistsAST | +1.0 | +2.3 |
| StealsSTL | +1.3 | +1.8 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| Threes3PM | +1.6 | +2.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +1.2 | -0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Total | +4.3 | +6.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Luka Dončić stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Donovan Mitchell | Luka Dončić |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +2.2 (#16) | +3.0 (#8) |
| REB | +5.0 (#8) | +5.1 (#7) |
| AST | +3.1 (#13) | +3.6 (#9) |
| STL | +2.9 (#14) | +4.3 (#7) |
| BLK | +5.3 (#6) | +6.5 (#5) |
| 3PM | +2.4 (#19) | +3.6 (#10) |
| FG% | +4.8 (#9) | +6.4 (#6) |
| FT% | +2.8 (#16) | +6.5 (#3) |
| TO | +5.7 (#7) | +9.1 (#3) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Donovan Mitchell: 2 games (Thu @PHI, Sat BKN).
- Luka Dončić: 3 games (Wed GSW, Fri LAC, Sun @UTA).
Recent games
- Donovan Mitchell: 40.3 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 44.3 on the board.
- Luka Dončić: 60.4 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 57.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Donovan Mitchell or Luka Dončić in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Luka Dončić. 57.7 fantasy points per game against 44.3, 2nd on our board to 12th. 9-cat leagues: Luka Dončić again, +6.2 in summed z-scores against +4.3 (6th to 7th).
Who wins more categories, Donovan Mitchell or Luka Dončić?
Category by category, Donovan Mitchell is ahead in 3 (FG%, FT% and TO) and Luka Dončić in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK and 3PM).
Who should I start in Week 1, Donovan Mitchell or Luka Dončić?
Donovan Mitchell plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Luka Dončić 3. For that week alone, start Luka Dončić: 173.2 projected fantasy points to 88.6 for Donovan Mitchell.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number