Luka Dončić vs Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Luka Dončić in points leagues (57.7 fantasy points a game to 50.4) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 9-cat leagues (3rd against 6th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #2
- 57.7 FP/G, slot 1.02, $52
- 9-cat leagues
- #6
- +6.2 z, slot 1.06, $49
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #4
- 50.4 FP/G, slot 1.04, $41
- 9-cat leagues
- #3
- +8.4 z, slot 1.03, $61
Game-time decision (Rest)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Luka Dončić. 57.7 fantasy points per game against 50.4, 2nd on our board to 4th.
9-cat leagues: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander instead, +8.4 in summed z-scores against +6.2 (3rd to 6th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Luka Dončić is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, STL and 3PM) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 4 (BLK, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Luka Dončić produces more: 58.1 fantasy points to 54.7, on 35.8 minutes a night against 33.2. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Luka Dončić plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3. For that week alone, start Luka Dončić: 173.2 projected fantasy points to 151.3 for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 57.7 | 50.4 |
| Minutes | 35.8 | 33.2 |
| PointsPTS | 33.5 | 31.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.7 | 4.3 |
| AssistsAST | 8.3 | 6.6 |
| StealsSTL | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Threes3PM | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.6% | 55.3% |
| Free throw %FT% | 78.0% | 87.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 64 | 68 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 58.1 | 54.7 |
| Points | 33.7 | 33.7 |
| Rebounds | 7.8 | 4.7 |
| Assists | 8.3 | 7.1 |
| Steals | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Threes | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| Turnovers | 4.0 | 2.4 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +2.9 | +2.5 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.8 | -0.7 |
| AssistsAST | +2.3 | +1.4 |
| StealsSTL | +1.8 | +1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.3 | +0.2 |
| Threes3PM | +2.4 | +0.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | +2.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.6 | +2.2 |
| TurnoversTO | -2.7 | -0.4 |
| Total | +6.2 | +8.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Luka Dončić.
| Punt | Luka Dončić | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +3.0 (#8) | +5.8 (#3) |
| REB | +5.1 (#7) | +9.2 (#1) |
| AST | +3.6 (#9) | +6.7 (#4) |
| STL | +4.3 (#7) | +7.2 (#3) |
| BLK | +6.5 (#5) | +8.4 (#2) |
| 3PM | +3.6 (#10) | +8.0 (#3) |
| FG% | +6.4 (#6) | +6.6 (#5) |
| FT% | +6.5 (#3) | +5.9 (#4) |
| TO | +9.1 (#3) | +8.9 (#4) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Luka Dončić: 3 games (Wed GSW, Fri LAC, Sun @UTA).
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC), listed GTD.
Luka Dončić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: the Week 1 start/sit call
Recent games
- Luka Dončić: 60.4 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 57.7 on the board.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 44.9 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 50.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Luka Dončić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Luka Dončić. 57.7 fantasy points per game against 50.4, 2nd on our board to 4th. 9-cat leagues: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander instead, +8.4 in summed z-scores against +6.2 (3rd to 6th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Luka Dončić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
Category by category, Luka Dončić is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, STL and 3PM) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 4 (BLK, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Luka Dončić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
Luka Dončić plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3. For that week alone, start Luka Dončić: 173.2 projected fantasy points to 151.3 for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number