Duncan Robinson vs Sam Merrill: who to start in Week 1
Duncan Robinson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Duncan Robinson: 63.2 projected fantasy points to 40.6 for Sam Merrill. Over the season, Duncan Robinson leads in points leagues (21.1 fantasy points a game to 20.3) and Sam Merrill in 9-cat leagues (153rd against 154th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 8:28 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
Parlae may earn a commission from price links.
- Points leagues
- #189
- 21.1 FP/G, slot 16.09
- 9-cat leagues
- #154
- -2.5 z, slot 13.10, $1
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #202
- 20.3 FP/G, slot 17.10
- 9-cat leagues
- #153
- -2.4 z, slot 13.09, $1
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Duncan Robinson. 21.1 fantasy points per game against 20.3, 189th on our board to 202nd.
9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill instead, -2.4 in summed z-scores against -2.5 (153rd to 154th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Duncan Robinson is ahead in 4 (PTS, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Sam Merrill in 5 (REB, AST, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Sam Merrill produces more: 28.1 fantasy points to 27.6, on 26.0 minutes a night against 27.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Duncan Robinson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Duncan Robinson: 63.2 projected fantasy points to 40.6 for Sam Merrill.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Advertisement
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Duncan Robinson | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.1 | 20.3 |
| Minutes | 27.4 | 26.0 |
| PointsPTS | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| AssistsAST | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.5% | 46.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 76.9% | 86.8% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 77 | 52 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Duncan Robinson | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 27.6 | 28.1 |
| Points | 17.0 | 16.5 |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Assists | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
Advertisement
9-category z-scores
| Category | Duncan Robinson | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.6 | -0.8 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.4 | -1.4 |
| AssistsAST | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| StealsSTL | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.9 | -1.2 |
| Threes3PM | +1.5 | +1.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +0.3 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.3 | +1.4 |
| Total | -2.5 | -2.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Duncan Robinson.
| Punt | Duncan Robinson | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.0 (#165) | -1.7 (#151) |
| REB | -1.1 (#103) | -1.1 (#102) |
| AST | -1.8 (#139) | -2.0 (#148) |
| STL | -1.7 (#131) | -1.5 (#123) |
| BLK | -1.7 (#117) | -1.4 (#105) |
| 3PM | -4.1 (#229) | -3.7 (#213) |
| FG% | -2.0 (#121) | -2.0 (#119) |
| FT% | -2.4 (#154) | -2.8 (#170) |
| TO | -3.8 (#170) | -4.0 (#176) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Duncan Robinson: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
- Sam Merrill: 2 games (Thu @PHI, Sat BKN).
Recent games
- Duncan Robinson: 26.3 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 21.1 on the board.
- Sam Merrill: 15.4 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.3 on the board.
Advertisement
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Duncan Robinson playing tonight? · Is Sam Merrill playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Duncan Robinson or Sam Merrill?
Points leagues: Duncan Robinson. 21.1 fantasy points per game against 20.3, 189th on our board to 202nd. 9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill instead, -2.4 in summed z-scores against -2.5 (153rd to 154th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Duncan Robinson or Sam Merrill?
Category by category, Duncan Robinson is ahead in 4 (PTS, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Sam Merrill in 5 (REB, AST, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Duncan Robinson or Sam Merrill?
Duncan Robinson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Duncan Robinson: 63.2 projected fantasy points to 40.6 for Sam Merrill.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 8:28 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number