Jalen Duren vs Jimmy Butler III: who to start in Week 1
Jalen Duren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jimmy Butler III 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Duren: 111.7 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III. Over the season, Jimmy Butler III leads in both formats: 37.4 fantasy points a game to 37.2, and 15th against 30th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 8:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #40
- 37.2 FP/G, slot 4.04, $22
- 9-cat leagues
- #30
- +2.1 z, slot 3.06, $27
Day to day (Thigh)
- Points leagues
- #39
- 37.4 FP/G, slot 4.03, $23
- 9-cat leagues
- #15
- +3.2 z, slot 2.03, $34
Out (Knee)
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Jimmy Butler III. 37.4 fantasy points per game against 37.2, 39th on our board to 40th.
9-cat leagues: Jimmy Butler III again, +3.2 in summed z-scores against +2.1 (15th to 30th).
Category by category, Jalen Duren is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%) and Jimmy Butler III in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Jalen Duren produces more: 49.4 fantasy points to 43.2, on 27.1 minutes a night against 31.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jalen Duren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jimmy Butler III 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Duren: 111.7 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jalen Duren | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 37.2 | 37.4 |
| Minutes | 27.1 | 31.1 |
| PointsPTS | 18.7 | 20.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 10.2 | 5.6 |
| AssistsAST | 2.0 | 4.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Field goal %FG% | 64.5% | 51.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.4% | 86.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 70 | 38 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jalen Duren | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 49.4 | 43.2 |
| Points | 24.8 | 23.1 |
| Rebounds | 13.5 | 6.4 |
| Assists | 2.6 | 5.6 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Turnovers | 2.3 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jalen Duren | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | +2.0 | -0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.8 | +0.7 |
| StealsSTL | -0.5 | +1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.4 | -1.0 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | -0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +2.9 | +0.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.8 | +1.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Total | +2.1 | +3.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, steals and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jalen Duren.
| Punt | Jalen Duren | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +1.6 (#25) | +2.5 (#9) |
| REB | -0.2 (#67) | +3.3 (#15) |
| AST | +2.8 (#16) | +2.5 (#20) |
| STL | +2.5 (#20) | +2.0 (#23) |
| BLK | +1.4 (#32) | +4.1 (#9) |
| 3PM | +3.7 (#10) | +3.9 (#9) |
| FG% | -1.7 (#109) | +2.5 (#27) |
| FT% | +2.8 (#16) | +1.5 (#32) |
| TO | +1.8 (#38) | +2.8 (#25) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jalen Duren: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI), listed DTD.
- Jimmy Butler III: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
Recent games
- Jalen Duren: 30.0 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 37.2 on the board.
- Jimmy Butler III: 38.2 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 37.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jalen Duren playing tonight? · Is Jimmy Butler III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jalen Duren or Jimmy Butler III?
Points leagues: Jimmy Butler III. 37.4 fantasy points per game against 37.2, 39th on our board to 40th. 9-cat leagues: Jimmy Butler III again, +3.2 in summed z-scores against +2.1 (15th to 30th).
Who wins more categories, Jalen Duren or Jimmy Butler III?
Category by category, Jalen Duren is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%) and Jimmy Butler III in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jalen Duren or Jimmy Butler III?
Jalen Duren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jimmy Butler III 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Duren: 111.7 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 8:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number