Jalen Smith vs Keaton Wagler: who to start in Week 3
Jalen Smith plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Keaton Wagler 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Smith: 73.4 projected fantasy points to 73.0 for Keaton Wagler. Over the season, Jalen Smith leads in both formats: 24.5 fantasy points a game to 24.3, and 141st against 252nd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 2, 8:35 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #153
- 24.5 FP/G, slot 13.09, $1
- 9-cat leagues
- #141
- -2.1 z, slot 12.09, $3
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #155
- 24.3 FP/G, slot 13.11, $1
- 9-cat leagues
- #252
- -4.8 z, slot 21.12
The call
Points leagues: Jalen Smith. 24.5 fantasy points per game against 24.3, 153rd on our board to 155th.
9-cat leagues: Jalen Smith again, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -4.8 (141st to 252nd).
Category by category, Jalen Smith is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Keaton Wagler in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Jalen Smith produces more: 40.7 fantasy points to 35.0, on 21.7 minutes a night against 25.0. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jalen Smith plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Keaton Wagler 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Smith: 73.4 projected fantasy points to 73.0 for Keaton Wagler.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jalen Smith | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 24.5 | 24.3 |
| Minutes | 21.7 | 25.0 |
| PointsPTS | 10.7 | 13.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.3 | 4.5 |
| AssistsAST | 1.4 | 3.5 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.4% | 28.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 76.4% | 88.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 53 | 0 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jalen Smith | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 40.7 | 35.0 |
| Points | 17.8 | 19.0 |
| Rebounds | 12.1 | 6.5 |
| Assists | 2.2 | 5.0 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 3.6 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Jalen Smith | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.6 | -0.6 |
| AssistsAST | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.3 | -1.0 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.1 | -3.0 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +1.8 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.2 | -0.7 |
| Total | -2.1 | -4.8 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Keaton Wagler.
| Punt | Jalen Smith | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.1 (#115) | -4.2 (#304) |
| REB | -2.9 (#190) | -4.3 (#273) |
| AST | -1.0 (#92) | -4.7 (#292) |
| STL | -0.7 (#79) | -4.1 (#261) |
| BLK | -2.8 (#162) | -4.0 (#219) |
| 3PM | -1.9 (#143) | -4.8 (#288) |
| FG% | -2.3 (#137) | -1.9 (#122) |
| FT% | -1.9 (#140) | -6.6 (#343) |
| TO | -3.5 (#163) | -4.2 (#180) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 432 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Jalen Smith: 3 games (Mon @PHI, Wed @NYK, Sun PHI).
- Keaton Wagler: 3 games (Mon TOR, Wed MIA, Sun NOP), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Jalen Smith: 28.6 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 24.5 on the board.
- Keaton Wagler: 24.3 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 24.3 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jalen Smith playing tonight? · Is Keaton Wagler playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Keaton Wagler
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jalen Smith or Keaton Wagler?
Points leagues: Jalen Smith. 24.5 fantasy points per game against 24.3, 153rd on our board to 155th. 9-cat leagues: Jalen Smith again, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -4.8 (141st to 252nd).
Who wins more categories, Jalen Smith or Keaton Wagler?
Category by category, Jalen Smith is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Keaton Wagler in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 3, Jalen Smith or Keaton Wagler?
Jalen Smith plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Keaton Wagler 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Smith: 73.4 projected fantasy points to 73.0 for Keaton Wagler.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 2, 2026 at 8:35 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number