Jarace Walker vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Jarace Walker plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Jarace Walker: 63.9 projected fantasy points to 42.7 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Marvin Bagley III leads in both formats: 21.3 fantasy points a game to 21.3, and 196th against 263rd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 4:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #182
- 21.3 FP/G, slot 16.02
- 9-cat leagues
- #263
- -5.2 z, slot 22.11
- Points leagues
- #181
- 21.3 FP/G, slot 16.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #196
- -3.7 z, slot 17.04
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 21.3 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 181st on our board to 182nd.
9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III again, -3.7 in summed z-scores against -5.2 (196th to 263rd).
Category by category, Jarace Walker is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 31.0, on 19.5 minutes a night against 24.7. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jarace Walker plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Jarace Walker: 63.9 projected fantasy points to 42.7 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jarace Walker | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| Minutes | 24.7 | 19.5 |
| PointsPTS | 10.6 | 9.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.0 | 5.9 |
| AssistsAST | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.0% | 61.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 74.9% | 66.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 76 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jarace Walker | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 31.0 | 39.5 |
| Points | 15.4 | 18.4 |
| Rebounds | 7.2 | 10.9 |
| Assists | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Threes | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 3.0 | 2.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jarace Walker | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.0 | -1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | +0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.6 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.8 | -1.6 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.7 | -0.0 |
| Threes3PM | -0.0 | -1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.1 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | -0.3 | +1.0 |
| Total | -5.2 | -3.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jarace Walker.
| Punt | Jarace Walker | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -4.1 (#286) | -2.6 (#199) |
| REB | -5.0 (#296) | -4.1 (#255) |
| AST | -4.6 (#274) | -2.6 (#184) |
| STL | -4.4 (#264) | -2.2 (#153) |
| BLK | -4.8 (#263) | -4.0 (#227) |
| 3PM | -5.1 (#282) | -2.4 (#160) |
| FG% | -4.4 (#226) | -5.8 (#288) |
| FT% | -4.8 (#254) | -2.7 (#165) |
| TO | -5.0 (#212) | -4.8 (#204) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jarace Walker: 3 games (Wed @NOP, Fri DAL, Sun @BKN).
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Jarace Walker: 6.4 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 21.3 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 5.1 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jarace Walker playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jarace Walker or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 21.3 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 181st on our board to 182nd. 9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III again, -3.7 in summed z-scores against -5.2 (196th to 263rd).
Who wins more categories, Jarace Walker or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Jarace Walker is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jarace Walker or Marvin Bagley III?
Jarace Walker plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Jarace Walker: 63.9 projected fantasy points to 42.7 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 4:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number