Luke Kennard vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Luke Kennard plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Marvin Bagley III: 42.7 projected fantasy points to 32.3 for Luke Kennard. Over the season, Marvin Bagley III leads in points leagues (21.3 fantasy points a game to 16.2) and Luke Kennard in 9-cat leagues (200th against 201st). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 23, 9:47 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #267
- 16.2 FP/G, slot 23.03
- 9-cat leagues
- #200
- -3.7 z, slot 17.08
Day to day (Knee)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #186
- 21.3 FP/G, slot 16.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #201
- -3.7 z, slot 17.09
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 21.3 fantasy points per game against 16.2, 186th on our board to 267th.
9-cat leagues: Luke Kennard instead, -3.7 in summed z-scores against -3.7 (200th to 201st), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Luke Kennard is ahead in 5 (AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 27.0, on 19.5 minutes a night against 21.6. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Luke Kennard plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Marvin Bagley III: 42.7 projected fantasy points to 32.3 for Luke Kennard.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Luke Kennard | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 16.2 | 21.3 |
| Minutes | 21.6 | 19.5 |
| PointsPTS | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 2.3 | 5.9 |
| AssistsAST | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 53.3% | 61.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 91.3% | 66.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 78 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Luke Kennard | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 27.0 | 39.5 |
| Points | 14.0 | 18.4 |
| Rebounds | 3.9 | 10.9 |
| Assists | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.3 | 2.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Luke Kennard | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.4 | -1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.6 | +0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.7 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.9 | -1.6 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.2 | -0.0 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.4 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.3 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.4 | +1.0 |
| Total | -3.7 | -3.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, steals, threes, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Marvin Bagley III.
| Punt | Luke Kennard | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.3 (#186) | -2.6 (#202) |
| REB | -2.2 (#144) | -4.1 (#254) |
| AST | -3.1 (#203) | -2.6 (#181) |
| STL | -2.9 (#184) | -2.2 (#150) |
| BLK | -2.7 (#159) | -4.0 (#230) |
| 3PM | -3.6 (#213) | -2.4 (#155) |
| FG% | -4.3 (#225) | -5.8 (#288) |
| FT% | -4.1 (#222) | -2.8 (#165) |
| TO | -5.3 (#219) | -5.0 (#209) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 393 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Luke Kennard: 2 games (Wed @POR, Sat GSW), listed DTD.
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Luke Kennard: 22.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 16.2 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 5.1 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Luke Kennard playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Luke Kennard or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 21.3 fantasy points per game against 16.2, 186th on our board to 267th. 9-cat leagues: Luke Kennard instead, -3.7 in summed z-scores against -3.7 (200th to 201st), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Luke Kennard or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Luke Kennard is ahead in 5 (AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Luke Kennard or Marvin Bagley III?
Luke Kennard plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Marvin Bagley III: 42.7 projected fantasy points to 32.3 for Luke Kennard.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 23, 2026 at 9:47 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number