Jaxson Hayes vs Sam Merrill: who to start in Week 3
Jaxson Hayes plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Sam Merrill 4. For that week alone, start Sam Merrill: 79.6 projected fantasy points to 79.6 for Jaxson Hayes. Over the season, Sam Merrill leads in both formats: 19.9 fantasy points a game to 19.9, and 162nd against 187th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 2:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #218
- 19.9 FP/G, slot 19.02
- 9-cat leagues
- #187
- -3.2 z, slot 16.07
- Points leagues
- #217
- 19.9 FP/G, slot 19.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #162
- -2.7 z, slot 14.06
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Sam Merrill. 19.9 fantasy points per game against 19.9, 217th on our board to 218th.
9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill again, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (162nd to 187th).
Category by category, Jaxson Hayes is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%) and Sam Merrill in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Jaxson Hayes produces more: 35.4 fantasy points to 27.9, on 20.3 minutes a night against 25.7. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jaxson Hayes plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Sam Merrill 4. For that week alone, start Sam Merrill: 79.6 projected fantasy points to 79.6 for Jaxson Hayes.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jaxson Hayes | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 19.9 | 19.9 |
| Minutes | 20.3 | 25.7 |
| PointsPTS | 7.7 | 11.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.7 | 2.7 |
| AssistsAST | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 2.6 |
| Field goal %FG% | 68.4% | 44.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 66.4% | 87.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 66 | 52 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jaxson Hayes | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 35.4 | 27.9 |
| Points | 13.7 | 15.9 |
| Rebounds | 8.4 | 3.8 |
| Assists | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| Threes | 0.1 | 3.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.2 | 0.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Jaxson Hayes | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.6 | -1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| AssistsAST | -1.3 | -0.7 |
| StealsSTL | -1.1 | -0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.9 | -1.2 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | +0.9 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.4 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.0 | +0.3 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.6 | +1.7 |
| Total | -3.2 | -2.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jaxson Hayes.
| Punt | Jaxson Hayes | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#145) | -1.7 (#159) |
| REB | -3.1 (#196) | -1.4 (#112) |
| AST | -2.0 (#148) | -2.1 (#150) |
| STL | -2.3 (#158) | -1.8 (#135) |
| BLK | -4.5 (#246) | -1.7 (#119) |
| 3PM | -1.4 (#115) | -3.6 (#220) |
| FG% | -5.2 (#263) | -2.2 (#135) |
| FT% | -2.1 (#148) | -3.0 (#186) |
| TO | -5.1 (#214) | -4.5 (#189) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 438 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Jaxson Hayes: 4 games (Mon @SAS, Wed @NOP, Fri @DAL, Sun @MIN).
- Sam Merrill: 4 games (Mon OKC, Wed @OKC, Fri PHI, Sat NYK), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Jaxson Hayes: 27.1 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 19.9 on the board.
- Sam Merrill: 17.7 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 19.9 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jaxson Hayes playing tonight? · Is Sam Merrill playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jaxson Hayes or Sam Merrill?
Points leagues: Sam Merrill. 19.9 fantasy points per game against 19.9, 217th on our board to 218th. 9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill again, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (162nd to 187th).
Who wins more categories, Jaxson Hayes or Sam Merrill?
Category by category, Jaxson Hayes is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%) and Sam Merrill in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 3, Jaxson Hayes or Sam Merrill?
Jaxson Hayes plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Sam Merrill 4. For that week alone, start Sam Merrill: 79.6 projected fantasy points to 79.6 for Jaxson Hayes.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 2:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number