Al Horford vs Jaxson Hayes: who to start in Week 3
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Jaxson Hayes 4. For that week alone, start Jaxson Hayes: 79.6 projected fantasy points to 59.5 for Al Horford. Over the season, Jaxson Hayes leads in points leagues (19.9 fantasy points a game to 19.8) and Al Horford in 9-cat leagues (185th against 187th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 2:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #220
- 19.8 FP/G, slot 19.04
- 9-cat leagues
- #185
- -3.2 z, slot 16.05
Day to day (Rest)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #218
- 19.9 FP/G, slot 19.02
- 9-cat leagues
- #187
- -3.2 z, slot 16.07
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Jaxson Hayes. 19.9 fantasy points per game against 19.8, 218th on our board to 220th.
9-cat leagues: Al Horford instead, -3.2 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (185th to 187th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 3 (AST, 3PM and FT%) and Jaxson Hayes in 6 (PTS, REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Jaxson Hayes produces more: 35.4 fantasy points to 34.5, on 20.3 minutes a night against 20.7. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Jaxson Hayes 4. For that week alone, start Jaxson Hayes: 79.6 projected fantasy points to 59.5 for Al Horford.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Al Horford | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 19.8 | 19.9 |
| Minutes | 20.7 | 20.3 |
| PointsPTS | 7.3 | 7.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| AssistsAST | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 42.2% | 68.4% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.9% | 66.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 66 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Al Horford | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 34.5 | 35.4 |
| Points | 12.7 | 13.7 |
| Rebounds | 8.0 | 8.4 |
| Assists | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Threes | 2.7 | 0.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 1.2 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Al Horford | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.7 | -1.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.8 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | -1.3 | -1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -1.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.6 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.1 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.3 | +1.6 |
| Total | -3.2 | -3.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jaxson Hayes.
| Punt | Al Horford | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.5 (#136) | -1.6 (#145) |
| REB | -2.8 (#183) | -3.1 (#196) |
| AST | -2.4 (#171) | -2.0 (#148) |
| STL | -1.9 (#146) | -2.3 (#158) |
| BLK | -4.1 (#223) | -4.5 (#246) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#188) | -1.4 (#115) |
| FG% | -2.7 (#152) | -5.2 (#263) |
| FT% | -3.1 (#191) | -2.1 (#148) |
| TO | -4.6 (#196) | -5.1 (#214) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 438 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Al Horford: 3 games (Mon PHX, Thu MIA, Sat ORL), 1 back-to-back, listed DTD.
- Jaxson Hayes: 4 games (Mon @SAS, Wed @NOP, Fri @DAL, Sun @MIN).
Recent games
- Al Horford: 13.3 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 19.8 on the board.
- Jaxson Hayes: 27.1 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 19.9 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Al Horford playing tonight? · Is Jaxson Hayes playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Al Horford or Jaxson Hayes?
Points leagues: Jaxson Hayes. 19.9 fantasy points per game against 19.8, 218th on our board to 220th. 9-cat leagues: Al Horford instead, -3.2 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (185th to 187th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Al Horford or Jaxson Hayes?
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 3 (AST, 3PM and FT%) and Jaxson Hayes in 6 (PTS, REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 3, Al Horford or Jaxson Hayes?
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Jaxson Hayes 4. For that week alone, start Jaxson Hayes: 79.6 projected fantasy points to 59.5 for Al Horford.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 2:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number