Jaylen Wells vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Jaylen Wells plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Jaylen Wells: 64.0 projected fantasy points to 42.7 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Marvin Bagley III leads in both formats: 21.3 fantasy points a game to 21.3, and 201st against 207th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 23, 9:47 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #187
- 21.3 FP/G, slot 16.07
- 9-cat leagues
- #207
- -3.8 z, slot 18.03
- Points leagues
- #186
- 21.3 FP/G, slot 16.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #201
- -3.7 z, slot 17.09
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 21.3 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 186th on our board to 187th.
9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III again, -3.7 in summed z-scores against -3.8 (201st to 207th).
Category by category, Jaylen Wells is ahead in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley III in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 29.0, on 19.5 minutes a night against 26.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jaylen Wells plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Jaylen Wells: 64.0 projected fantasy points to 42.7 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jaylen Wells | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| Minutes | 26.5 | 19.5 |
| PointsPTS | 12.5 | 9.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.3 | 5.9 |
| AssistsAST | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 43.5% | 61.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 66.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jaylen Wells | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 29.0 | 39.5 |
| Points | 17.0 | 18.4 |
| Rebounds | 4.5 | 10.9 |
| Assists | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Steals | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | 2.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jaylen Wells | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.7 | -1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.1 | +0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | +0.2 | -1.6 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.2 | -0.0 |
| Threes3PM | +0.2 | -1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.4 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| Total | -3.8 | -3.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jaylen Wells.
| Punt | Jaylen Wells | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -3.2 (#231) | -2.6 (#202) |
| REB | -2.9 (#186) | -4.1 (#254) |
| AST | -2.9 (#193) | -2.6 (#181) |
| STL | -4.1 (#242) | -2.2 (#150) |
| BLK | -2.9 (#165) | -4.0 (#230) |
| 3PM | -4.1 (#228) | -2.4 (#155) |
| FG% | -3.3 (#166) | -5.8 (#288) |
| FT% | -3.5 (#199) | -2.8 (#165) |
| TO | -5.0 (#213) | -5.0 (#209) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 393 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jaylen Wells: 3 games (Wed UTA, Fri @GSW, Sun @SAC).
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Jaylen Wells: 30.0 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.3 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 5.1 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jaylen Wells playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jaylen Wells or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 21.3 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 186th on our board to 187th. 9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III again, -3.7 in summed z-scores against -3.8 (201st to 207th).
Who wins more categories, Jaylen Wells or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Jaylen Wells is ahead in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley III in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jaylen Wells or Marvin Bagley III?
Jaylen Wells plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Jaylen Wells: 64.0 projected fantasy points to 42.7 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 23, 2026 at 9:47 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number