Dru Smith vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Dru Smith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Dru Smith: 50.6 projected fantasy points to 42.7 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Marvin Bagley III leads in points leagues (21.3 fantasy points a game to 16.9) and Dru Smith in 9-cat leagues (199th against 201st). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 23, 9:47 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #255
- 16.9 FP/G, slot 22.03
- 9-cat leagues
- #199
- -3.7 z, slot 17.07
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #186
- 21.3 FP/G, slot 16.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #201
- -3.7 z, slot 17.09
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 21.3 fantasy points per game against 16.9, 186th on our board to 255th.
9-cat leagues: Dru Smith instead, -3.7 in summed z-scores against -3.7 (199th to 201st), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Dru Smith is ahead in 5 (AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 37.3, on 19.5 minutes a night against 16.3. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Dru Smith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Dru Smith: 50.6 projected fantasy points to 42.7 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Dru Smith | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 16.9 | 21.3 |
| Minutes | 16.3 | 19.5 |
| PointsPTS | 5.6 | 9.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 2.5 | 5.9 |
| AssistsAST | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.5% | 61.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 82.9% | 66.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 70 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Dru Smith | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 37.3 | 39.5 |
| Points | 12.5 | 18.4 |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 10.9 |
| Assists | 5.7 | 2.6 |
| Steals | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Threes | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Dru Smith | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.9 | -1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.5 | +0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | +1.1 | -1.6 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.8 | -0.0 |
| Threes3PM | -1.1 | -1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.6 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.4 | +1.0 |
| Total | -3.7 | -3.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, steals, threes, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Marvin Bagley III.
| Punt | Dru Smith | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.8 (#158) | -2.6 (#202) |
| REB | -2.4 (#160) | -4.1 (#254) |
| AST | -3.2 (#209) | -2.6 (#181) |
| STL | -4.9 (#293) | -2.2 (#150) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#178) | -4.0 (#230) |
| 3PM | -2.6 (#164) | -2.4 (#155) |
| FG% | -3.5 (#182) | -5.8 (#288) |
| FT% | -3.8 (#214) | -2.8 (#165) |
| TO | -5.2 (#217) | -5.0 (#209) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 393 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Dru Smith: 3 games (Wed MIN, Fri DET, Sat @CHA), 1 back-to-back.
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Dru Smith: 13.6 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 16.9 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 5.1 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Dru Smith playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Dru Smith or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 21.3 fantasy points per game against 16.9, 186th on our board to 255th. 9-cat leagues: Dru Smith instead, -3.7 in summed z-scores against -3.7 (199th to 201st), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Dru Smith or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Dru Smith is ahead in 5 (AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Dru Smith or Marvin Bagley III?
Dru Smith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Dru Smith: 50.6 projected fantasy points to 42.7 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 23, 2026 at 9:47 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number