John Collins vs Keaton Wagler: who to start in Week 3
John Collins plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Keaton Wagler 3. For that week alone, start Keaton Wagler: 70.6 projected fantasy points to 70.5 for John Collins. Over the season, Keaton Wagler leads in points leagues (23.5 fantasy points a game to 23.5) and John Collins in 9-cat leagues (160th against 286th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 2:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #160
- 23.5 FP/G, slot 14.04
- 9-cat leagues
- #160
- -2.5 z, slot 14.04
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #159
- 23.5 FP/G, slot 14.03
- 9-cat leagues
- #286
- -5.6 z, slot 24.10
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Keaton Wagler. 23.5 fantasy points per game against 23.5, 159th on our board to 160th.
9-cat leagues: John Collins instead, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -5.6 (160th to 286th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, John Collins is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Keaton Wagler in 3 (AST, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Keaton Wagler produces more: 33.9 fantasy points to 31.7, on 25.0 minutes a night against 26.6. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
John Collins plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Keaton Wagler 3. For that week alone, start Keaton Wagler: 70.6 projected fantasy points to 70.5 for John Collins.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | John Collins | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| Minutes | 26.6 | 25.0 |
| PointsPTS | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.7 | 4.4 |
| AssistsAST | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 51.5% | 29.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 71.9% | 84.8% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 0 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | John Collins | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 31.7 | 33.9 |
| Points | 16.1 | 17.5 |
| Rebounds | 7.7 | 6.4 |
| Assists | 1.2 | 5.1 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 3.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | John Collins | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.0 | -0.6 |
| AssistsAST | -1.5 | -0.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.3 | -0.8 |
| Threes3PM | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.5 | -2.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.5 | +1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.9 | -0.4 |
| Total | -2.5 | -5.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Keaton Wagler.
| Punt | John Collins | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.7 (#153) | -4.7 (#329) |
| REB | -2.7 (#174) | -5.1 (#311) |
| AST | -1.1 (#105) | -5.4 (#328) |
| STL | -1.7 (#132) | -4.6 (#291) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#173) | -5.0 (#279) |
| 3PM | -2.0 (#148) | -5.2 (#308) |
| FG% | -3.3 (#177) | -3.0 (#167) |
| FT% | -2.1 (#145) | -6.5 (#340) |
| TO | -3.6 (#159) | -5.2 (#216) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 438 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- John Collins: 3 games (Mon @CHA, Wed PHI, Sun LAL).
- Keaton Wagler: 3 games (Mon TOR, Wed MIA, Sun NOP), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- John Collins: 20.5 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 23.5 on the board.
- Keaton Wagler: 23.5 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 23.5 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is John Collins playing tonight? · Is Keaton Wagler playing tonight?
Rookie cards: John Collins, Keaton Wagler
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, John Collins or Keaton Wagler?
Points leagues: Keaton Wagler. 23.5 fantasy points per game against 23.5, 159th on our board to 160th. 9-cat leagues: John Collins instead, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -5.6 (160th to 286th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, John Collins or Keaton Wagler?
Category by category, John Collins is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Keaton Wagler in 3 (AST, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 3, John Collins or Keaton Wagler?
John Collins plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Keaton Wagler 3. For that week alone, start Keaton Wagler: 70.6 projected fantasy points to 70.5 for John Collins.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 2:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number