Josh Hart vs Ryan Rollins: who to start in Week 1
Josh Hart plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ryan Rollins 3. For that week alone, start Ryan Rollins: 99.5 projected fantasy points to 92.8 for Josh Hart. Over the season, Ryan Rollins leads in points leagues (33.2 fantasy points a game to 30.9) and Josh Hart in 9-cat leagues (56th against 57th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #75
- 30.9 FP/G, slot 7.03, $13
- 9-cat leagues
- #56
- +0.1 z, slot 5.08, $16
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #58
- 33.2 FP/G, slot 5.10, $16
- 9-cat leagues
- #57
- +0.0 z, slot 5.09, $16
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Ryan Rollins. 33.2 fantasy points per game against 30.9, 58th on our board to 75th.
9-cat leagues: Josh Hart instead, +0.1 in summed z-scores against +0.0 (56th to 57th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Josh Hart is ahead in 3 (REB, FG% and TO) and Ryan Rollins in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, BLK, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Ryan Rollins produces more: 37.7 fantasy points to 36.5, on 31.7 minutes a night against 30.5. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Josh Hart plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ryan Rollins 3. For that week alone, start Ryan Rollins: 99.5 projected fantasy points to 92.8 for Josh Hart.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Josh Hart | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 30.9 | 33.2 |
| Minutes | 30.5 | 31.7 |
| PointsPTS | 12.0 | 16.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.6 | 4.8 |
| AssistsAST | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| StealsSTL | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Threes3PM | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 49.4% | 45.5% |
| Free throw %FT% | 71.5% | 79.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 66 | 74 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Josh Hart | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.5 | 37.7 |
| Points | 14.1 | 18.7 |
| Rebounds | 9.0 | 5.4 |
| Assists | 5.6 | 6.2 |
| Steals | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Blocks | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Turnovers | 2.2 | 3.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Josh Hart | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.7 | +0.0 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.8 | -0.4 |
| AssistsAST | +0.6 | +1.0 |
| StealsSTL | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.8 | -0.5 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | +0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.1 | -0.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.5 | -0.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.0 | -1.0 |
| Total | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Ryan Rollins.
| Punt | Josh Hart | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +0.7 (#39) | -0.1 (#61) |
| REB | -0.9 (#88) | +0.5 (#46) |
| AST | -0.6 (#77) | -1.0 (#99) |
| STL | -0.6 (#75) | -1.0 (#92) |
| BLK | +0.7 (#43) | +0.5 (#49) |
| 3PM | +0.1 (#61) | -0.9 (#89) |
| FG% | -0.4 (#69) | +0.7 (#46) |
| FT% | +0.5 (#48) | -0.0 (#62) |
| TO | -0.1 (#63) | +1.0 (#45) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Josh Hart: 3 games (Tue PHI, Fri @BOS, Sun ORL).
- Ryan Rollins: 3 games (Wed @WAS, Fri CHI, Sat @PHI), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Josh Hart: 35.9 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 30.9 on the board.
- Ryan Rollins: 25.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 33.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Josh Hart playing tonight? · Is Ryan Rollins playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ryan Rollins
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Josh Hart or Ryan Rollins?
Points leagues: Ryan Rollins. 33.2 fantasy points per game against 30.9, 58th on our board to 75th. 9-cat leagues: Josh Hart instead, +0.1 in summed z-scores against +0.0 (56th to 57th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Josh Hart or Ryan Rollins?
Category by category, Josh Hart is ahead in 3 (REB, FG% and TO) and Ryan Rollins in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, BLK, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Josh Hart or Ryan Rollins?
Josh Hart plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ryan Rollins 3. For that week alone, start Ryan Rollins: 99.5 projected fantasy points to 92.8 for Josh Hart.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 10:27 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number