LaMelo Ball vs Tyler Herro: who to start in Week 1
LaMelo Ball plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Tyler Herro 3. For that week alone, start LaMelo Ball: 112.5 projected fantasy points to 104.5 for Tyler Herro. Over the season, LaMelo Ball leads in points leagues (37.5 fantasy points a game to 34.8) and Tyler Herro in 9-cat leagues (35th against 36th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 8:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #38
- 37.5 FP/G, slot 4.02, $23
- 9-cat leagues
- #36
- +1.1 z, slot 3.12, $22
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #49
- 34.8 FP/G, slot 5.01, $19
- 9-cat leagues
- #35
- +1.1 z, slot 3.11, $22
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: LaMelo Ball. 37.5 fantasy points per game against 34.8, 38th on our board to 49th.
9-cat leagues: Tyler Herro instead, +1.1 in summed z-scores against +1.1 (35th to 36th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, LaMelo Ball is ahead in 3 (AST, STL and 3PM) and Tyler Herro in 5 (PTS, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, LaMelo Ball produces more: 48.6 fantasy points to 40.0, on 27.8 minutes a night against 31.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
LaMelo Ball plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Tyler Herro 3. For that week alone, start LaMelo Ball: 112.5 projected fantasy points to 104.5 for Tyler Herro.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | LaMelo Ball | Tyler Herro |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 37.5 | 34.8 |
| Minutes | 27.8 | 31.3 |
| PointsPTS | 19.6 | 21.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| AssistsAST | 6.9 | 4.4 |
| StealsSTL | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Field goal %FG% | 40.3% | 47.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 88.8% | 89.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 33 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | LaMelo Ball | Tyler Herro |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 48.6 | 40.0 |
| Points | 25.5 | 24.7 |
| Rebounds | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| Assists | 9.0 | 5.1 |
| Steals | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 4.9 | 3.2 |
| Turnovers | 3.5 | 2.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | LaMelo Ball | Tyler Herro |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | +1.7 | +0.4 |
| StealsSTL | +0.8 | -0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.0 | -0.8 |
| Threes3PM | +2.2 | +1.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -2.3 | -0.2 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.7 | +1.1 |
| TurnoversTO | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| Total | +1.1 | +1.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, blocks, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to LaMelo Ball.
| Punt | LaMelo Ball | Tyler Herro |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +0.4 (#45) | +0.2 (#53) |
| REB | +1.7 (#27) | +1.8 (#26) |
| AST | -0.7 (#84) | +0.7 (#42) |
| STL | +0.3 (#54) | +1.8 (#27) |
| BLK | +2.1 (#26) | +2.0 (#27) |
| 3PM | -1.3 (#105) | -0.2 (#66) |
| FG% | +3.9 (#13) | +1.7 (#33) |
| FT% | +0.2 (#54) | -0.1 (#65) |
| TO | +2.2 (#35) | +1.3 (#41) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- LaMelo Ball: 3 games (Wed @MIA, Fri @ORL, Sun TOR).
- Tyler Herro: 3 games (Wed @WAS, Fri CHI, Sat @PHI), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- LaMelo Ball: 33.0 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 37.5 on the board.
- Tyler Herro: 43.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 34.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is LaMelo Ball playing tonight? · Is Tyler Herro playing tonight?
Rookie cards: LaMelo Ball
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, LaMelo Ball or Tyler Herro?
Points leagues: LaMelo Ball. 37.5 fantasy points per game against 34.8, 38th on our board to 49th. 9-cat leagues: Tyler Herro instead, +1.1 in summed z-scores against +1.1 (35th to 36th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, LaMelo Ball or Tyler Herro?
Category by category, LaMelo Ball is ahead in 3 (AST, STL and 3PM) and Tyler Herro in 5 (PTS, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, LaMelo Ball or Tyler Herro?
LaMelo Ball plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Tyler Herro 3. For that week alone, start LaMelo Ball: 112.5 projected fantasy points to 104.5 for Tyler Herro.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 8:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number