Lauri Markkanen vs Luka Dončić: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Luka Dončić in both formats: 57.7 fantasy points a game to 41.2 in points leagues, and 6th against 8th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #23
- 41.2 FP/G, slot 2.11, $28
- 9-cat leagues
- #8
- +4.2 z, slot 1.08, $38
- Points leagues
- #2
- 57.7 FP/G, slot 1.02, $52
- 9-cat leagues
- #6
- +6.2 z, slot 1.06, $49
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Luka Dončić. 57.7 fantasy points per game against 41.2, 2nd on our board to 23rd.
9-cat leagues: Luka Dončić again, +6.2 in summed z-scores against +4.2 (6th to 8th).
Category by category, Lauri Markkanen is ahead in 3 (FG%, FT% and TO) and Luka Dončić in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK and 3PM).
Per 36 minutes, Luka Dončić produces more: 58.1 fantasy points to 43.1, on 35.8 minutes a night against 34.4. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Lauri Markkanen plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Luka Dončić 3. For that week alone, start Luka Dončić: 173.2 projected fantasy points to 123.5 for Lauri Markkanen.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Lauri Markkanen | Luka Dončić |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 41.2 | 57.7 |
| Minutes | 34.4 | 35.8 |
| PointsPTS | 26.7 | 33.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.9 | 7.7 |
| AssistsAST | 2.1 | 8.3 |
| StealsSTL | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 2.7 | 4.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.7% | 47.6% |
| Free throw %FT% | 89.6% | 78.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 4.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 42 | 64 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Lauri Markkanen | Luka Dončić |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 43.1 | 58.1 |
| Points | 28.0 | 33.7 |
| Rebounds | 7.2 | 7.8 |
| Assists | 2.2 | 8.3 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 2.9 | 4.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.6 | 4.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Lauri Markkanen | Luka Dončić |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +1.8 | +2.9 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.5 | +0.8 |
| AssistsAST | -0.8 | +2.3 |
| StealsSTL | -0.1 | +1.8 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| Threes3PM | +1.1 | +2.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +1.9 | -0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | -2.7 |
| Total | +4.2 | +6.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists flips the 9-cat answer to Lauri Markkanen.
| Punt | Lauri Markkanen | Luka Dončić |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +2.3 (#12) | +3.0 (#8) |
| REB | +3.8 (#11) | +5.1 (#7) |
| AST | +4.8 (#6) | +3.6 (#9) |
| STL | +4.2 (#8) | +4.3 (#7) |
| BLK | +4.6 (#9) | +6.5 (#5) |
| 3PM | +2.8 (#15) | +3.6 (#10) |
| FG% | +5.0 (#8) | +6.4 (#6) |
| FT% | +2.1 (#23) | +6.5 (#3) |
| TO | +3.8 (#19) | +9.1 (#3) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Lauri Markkanen: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Luka Dončić: 3 games (Wed GSW, Fri LAC, Sun @UTA).
Recent games
- Lauri Markkanen: 36.9 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 41.2 on the board.
- Luka Dončić: 60.4 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 57.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Lauri Markkanen or Luka Dončić in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Luka Dončić. 57.7 fantasy points per game against 41.2, 2nd on our board to 23rd. 9-cat leagues: Luka Dončić again, +6.2 in summed z-scores against +4.2 (6th to 8th).
Who wins more categories, Lauri Markkanen or Luka Dončić?
Category by category, Lauri Markkanen is ahead in 3 (FG%, FT% and TO) and Luka Dončić in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK and 3PM).
Who should I start in Week 1, Lauri Markkanen or Luka Dončić?
Lauri Markkanen plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Luka Dončić 3. For that week alone, start Luka Dončić: 173.2 projected fantasy points to 123.5 for Lauri Markkanen.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number