Marcus Smart vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 2
Marcus Smart plays 4 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Marvin Bagley III 3. For that week alone, start Marcus Smart: 80.5 projected fantasy points to 60.6 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Marvin Bagley III leads in points leagues (20.2 fantasy points a game to 20.1) and Marcus Smart in 9-cat leagues (196th against 208th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 28, 2:33 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #198
- 20.1 FP/G, slot 17.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #196
- -3.6 z, slot 17.04
Day to day (Forearm)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #197
- 20.2 FP/G, slot 17.05
- 9-cat leagues
- #208
- -4.1 z, slot 18.04
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 20.2 fantasy points per game against 20.1, 197th on our board to 198th.
9-cat leagues: Marcus Smart instead, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -4.1 (196th to 208th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Marcus Smart is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 5 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 25.9, on 18.4 minutes a night against 28.0. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Marcus Smart plays 4 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Marvin Bagley III 3. For that week alone, start Marcus Smart: 80.5 projected fantasy points to 60.6 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Marcus Smart | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 20.1 | 20.2 |
| Minutes | 28.0 | 18.4 |
| PointsPTS | 9.1 | 9.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 2.7 | 5.6 |
| AssistsAST | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| StealsSTL | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 39.7% | 61.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 81.4% | 66.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 62 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Marcus Smart | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 25.9 | 39.5 |
| Points | 11.7 | 18.6 |
| Rebounds | 3.5 | 10.9 |
| Assists | 3.6 | 2.4 |
| Steals | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| Threes | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Marcus Smart | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.3 | -0.0 |
| AssistsAST | -0.4 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | +0.9 | -1.7 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.2 | -1.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.1 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.4 | +1.1 |
| Total | -3.6 | -4.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Marvin Bagley III.
| Punt | Marcus Smart | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.4 (#184) | -2.8 (#208) |
| REB | -2.4 (#159) | -4.3 (#260) |
| AST | -3.3 (#202) | -2.8 (#189) |
| STL | -4.6 (#273) | -2.4 (#155) |
| BLK | -3.0 (#172) | -4.3 (#235) |
| 3PM | -3.5 (#206) | -2.6 (#168) |
| FG% | -2.6 (#145) | -6.1 (#294) |
| FT% | -3.7 (#207) | -3.0 (#181) |
| TO | -4.1 (#177) | -5.3 (#217) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1)
- Marcus Smart: 4 games (Mon ATL, Wed @MIL, Fri @DAL, Sat OKC), 1 back-to-back, listed DTD.
- Marvin Bagley III: 3 games (Mon GSW, Wed @NOP, Fri @PHX).
Recent games
- Marcus Smart: 13.8 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.1 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 9.1 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 20.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Marcus Smart playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Marcus Smart or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 20.2 fantasy points per game against 20.1, 197th on our board to 198th. 9-cat leagues: Marcus Smart instead, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -4.1 (196th to 208th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Marcus Smart or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Marcus Smart is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 5 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 2, Marcus Smart or Marvin Bagley III?
Marcus Smart plays 4 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Marvin Bagley III 3. For that week alone, start Marcus Smart: 80.5 projected fantasy points to 60.6 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 28, 2026 at 2:33 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number