Marvin Bagley III vs Sam Merrill: who to start in Week 2
Marvin Bagley III plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Sam Merrill 4. For that week alone, start Sam Merrill: 81.0 projected fantasy points to 60.6 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Sam Merrill leads in both formats: 20.3 fantasy points a game to 20.2, and 150th against 209th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 27, 8:32 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #198
- 20.2 FP/G, slot 17.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #209
- -4.1 z, slot 18.05
- Points leagues
- #197
- 20.3 FP/G, slot 17.05
- 9-cat leagues
- #150
- -2.5 z, slot 13.06, $2
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Sam Merrill. 20.3 fantasy points per game against 20.2, 197th on our board to 198th.
9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill again, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -4.1 (150th to 209th).
Category by category, Marvin Bagley III is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%) and Sam Merrill in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 27.7, on 18.4 minutes a night against 26.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Marvin Bagley III plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Sam Merrill 4. For that week alone, start Sam Merrill: 81.0 projected fantasy points to 60.6 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Marvin Bagley III | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 20.2 | 20.3 |
| Minutes | 18.4 | 26.3 |
| PointsPTS | 9.5 | 11.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.6 | 2.7 |
| AssistsAST | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 0.3 | 2.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 61.9% | 45.5% |
| Free throw %FT% | 66.1% | 87.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 60 | 52 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Marvin Bagley III | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 39.5 | 27.7 |
| Points | 18.6 | 16.1 |
| Rebounds | 10.9 | 3.8 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 0.7 | 3.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 0.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Marvin Bagley III | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.2 | -0.8 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.0 | -1.3 |
| AssistsAST | -1.2 | -0.6 |
| StealsSTL | -1.7 | -1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.0 | -1.2 |
| Threes3PM | -1.4 | +1.1 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.5 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.1 | +0.4 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.1 | +1.5 |
| Total | -4.1 | -2.5 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting threes flips the 9-cat answer to Marvin Bagley III.
| Punt | Marvin Bagley III | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.8 (#205) | -1.7 (#153) |
| REB | -4.3 (#260) | -1.2 (#101) |
| AST | -2.8 (#187) | -2.0 (#146) |
| STL | -2.4 (#157) | -1.6 (#124) |
| BLK | -4.3 (#236) | -1.4 (#107) |
| 3PM | -2.6 (#170) | -3.7 (#215) |
| FG% | -6.1 (#294) | -2.0 (#120) |
| FT% | -3.0 (#181) | -2.9 (#172) |
| TO | -5.3 (#220) | -4.0 (#174) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1)
- Marvin Bagley III: 3 games (Mon GSW, Wed @NOP, Fri @PHX).
- Sam Merrill: 4 games (Mon MIN, Wed WAS, Thu @ATL, Sat @MIL), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Marvin Bagley III: 9.1 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 20.2 on the board.
- Sam Merrill: 16.9 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 20.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight? · Is Sam Merrill playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Marvin Bagley III or Sam Merrill?
Points leagues: Sam Merrill. 20.3 fantasy points per game against 20.2, 197th on our board to 198th. 9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill again, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -4.1 (150th to 209th).
Who wins more categories, Marvin Bagley III or Sam Merrill?
Category by category, Marvin Bagley III is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%) and Sam Merrill in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 2, Marvin Bagley III or Sam Merrill?
Marvin Bagley III plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Sam Merrill 4. For that week alone, start Sam Merrill: 81.0 projected fantasy points to 60.6 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 27, 2026 at 8:32 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number