Start Aaron Jones Sr. or Tyler Allgeier? Week 7

Updated Oct 23, 12:51 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Tyler Allgeier

Start

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MIN · vs IND

Market projects: 11.5; fantasy pts
IND D vs RB: 23.9; 6th most to RBs (2026)
Upside: High; 94 of 100 at RB

Sit

Tyler Allgeier

RB · ARI · vs DEN

Market projects: 10.7; fantasy pts
DEN D vs RB: 23.3; 9th most to RBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 74 of 100 at RB
Snap share: 51%; Through Week 6
Target share: 6%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Tyler Allgeier for Aaron Jones Sr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 153 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 10 games), Tyler Allgeier 65 (7.2 a game over 9 games). For Week 7 the call starts Aaron Jones Sr. over Tyler Allgeier, 11.5 to 10.7 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Tyler Allgeier in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Aaron Jones Sr. at 11.5 points and Tyler Allgeier at 10.7, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Tyler Allgeier's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Aaron Jones Sr. at ADP 110 and Tyler Allgeier at 169.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 11.5 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Aaron Jones Sr. is 41 rushing yards, 15 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.6 touchdowns (8, 8, 8 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 10.7 fantasy points for Tyler Allgeier, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Tyler Allgeier is 44 rushing yards and 0.4 touchdowns (7 and 13 market sources).

That puts Aaron Jones Sr. 0.8 points ahead of Tyler Allgeier on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 23.9 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 6th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 96 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against IND and caught passes for 45 more yards.

Tyler Allgeier and ARI host DEN on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

DEN allowed 23.3 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 9th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 105 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against DEN and caught passes for 33 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Aaron Jones Sr. is not on the injury report.

Tyler Allgeier is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Tyler Allgeier played 51 percent of ARI snaps, took 34 percent of the carries, drew 6 percent of the targets and had 19 percent of the red zone chances.

Tyler Allgeier, Week 3 against SF: 31 of 87 snaps, 2 carries for -1 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 10 yards.

Tyler Allgeier, Week 4 against NYG: 36 of 66 snaps, 8 carries for 42 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 1 touchdown.

Tyler Allgeier, Week 5 against DET: 32 of 73 snaps, 3 carries for 7 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 9 yards.

Tyler Allgeier, Week 6 against LAR: 40 of 72 snaps, 18 carries for 38 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for 10 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 39 of 61 snaps, 21 carries for 85 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 8 yards, 11.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 15 of 2025 against DAL: 32 of 55 snaps, 12 carries for 34 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 9.5 PPR points.

In 2025, Tyler Allgeier played 17 games for ATL and scored 123.0 PPR points, 7.2 a game, finishing RB39.

He ran 143 times for 514 yards and 8 touchdowns, and caught 14 of 16 targets for 96 yards.

He was on the field for 30 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Tyler Allgeier for Aaron Jones Sr.?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 153 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 10 games), Tyler Allgeier 65 (7.2 a game over 9 games). For Week 7 the call starts Aaron Jones Sr. over Tyler Allgeier, 11.5 to 10.7 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr. for Tyler Allgeier?
No. Keep Aaron Jones Sr.: he projects 153 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 10 games), Tyler Allgeier 65 (7.2 a game over 9 games). For Week 7 the call starts Aaron Jones Sr. over Tyler Allgeier, 11.5 to 10.7 projected PPR points.

Should I drop Tyler Allgeier?