Start Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith? Week 7

Updated Oct 22, 9:41 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.0; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 37 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Sit

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · vs MIA

Market projects: 15.1; fantasy pts
MIA D vs QB: 19.4; 8th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 46 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Geno Smith for Baker Mayfield?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games), Geno Smith 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith, 16.0 to 15.1 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.0 points and Geno Smith at 15.1, a gap of 0.9. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 13, 7 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.1 fantasy points for Geno Smith, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Geno Smith is 223 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 7 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (11, 11, 9 and 10 market sources).

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.9 points ahead of Geno Smith on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Geno Smith and NYJ host MIA on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIA allowed 19.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 8th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 226 yards and 2.2 touchdowns a game against MIA, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Geno Smith has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 6, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 204 times and threw an average of 7.1 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 3 against DET: 66 of 66 snaps, 31 of 37 passes for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 4 against CHI: 32 of 32 snaps, 8 of 15 passes for 119 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

Geno Smith, Week 5 against CLE: 70 of 70 snaps, 17 of 30 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 9 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 6 against NE: 62 of 62 snaps, 20 of 30 passes for 252 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Geno Smith for Baker Mayfield?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games), Geno Smith 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith, 16.0 to 15.1 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Geno Smith?
No. Keep Baker Mayfield: he projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games), Geno Smith 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith, 16.0 to 15.1 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.