Start Justin Herbert or Baker Mayfield? Week 9
Updated Nov 3, 11:31 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 10 answer posts Tuesday.
Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield
- Market projects
- 16.6
- fantasy pts
- HOU D vs QB
- 18.5
- 13th most to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 100%
- Through Week 8
- Market projects
- 15.6
- fantasy pts
- CHI D vs QB
- 19.7
- 8th most to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 97%
- Through Week 8
Should I drop Justin Herbert for Baker Mayfield?
Not on these numbers alone. Justin Herbert projects 125 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (13.9 a game over 9 games) and Baker Mayfield 129 (16.1 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield, 16.6 to 15.6 projected PPR points.
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Our Week 9 call
Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield in Week 9.
Market-based projections have Justin Herbert at 16.6 points and Baker Mayfield at 15.6, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Baker Mayfield's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Justin Herbert at ADP 112 and Baker Mayfield at 133.
What the market projects
Player markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The market-based projection for Justin Herbert is 1-2 passing touchdowns, 23 rushing yards and 0.2 touchdowns (3, 3 and 5 market sources).
Player markets imply 15.6 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 215 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (10, 11 and 8 market sources).
That puts Justin Herbert 1.0 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.
Week 9 matchups
Justin Herbert and LAC host HOU on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.
HOU allowed 18.5 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 263 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against HOU, with 0.4 interceptions a game.
Baker Mayfield and TB visit CHI on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.
CHI allowed 19.7 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 8 games, the 8th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 235 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CHI, with 0.6 interceptions a game.
By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Justin Herbert is not on the injury report.
Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.
Usage before Week 9
Through Week 8, Justin Herbert played 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 255 times and threw an average of 7.4 air yards per attempt.
Justin Herbert, Week 4 against SEA: 71 of 71 snaps, 19 of 31 passes for 189 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 6 carries for 40 yards.
Justin Herbert, Week 5 against DEN: 67 of 67 snaps, 14 of 23 passes for 121 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 54 yards.
Justin Herbert, Week 6 against KC: 68 of 68 snaps, 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 26 yards.
Justin Herbert, Week 8 against LAR: 61 of 61 snaps, 24 of 31 passes for 257 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 15 yards.
Through Week 8, Baker Mayfield played 97 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 134 times and threw an average of 8.4 air yards per attempt.
Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.
Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.
Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.
Baker Mayfield, Week 8 against ATL: 60 of 60 snaps, 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 15 yards.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.
He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.
He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Their other Week 9 calls
Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
Drop or keep
Should I drop Justin Herbert for Baker Mayfield?
Not on these numbers alone. Justin Herbert projects 125 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (13.9 a game over 9 games) and Baker Mayfield 129 (16.1 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield, 16.6 to 15.6 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Justin Herbert?
Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games) and Justin Herbert 125 (13.9 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield, 16.6 to 15.6 projected PPR points.
Week 9 on the board
- Is Justin Herbert playing Week 9?
- Is Baker Mayfield playing Week 9?
- Chargers depth chart
- Buccaneers depth chart
- Week 9 QB rankings
- Week 9 fantasy rankings
- Week 9 start or sit
- Week 9 waiver wire
- Week 9 trade value chart
- Trade deadline buy low, sell high
- Fantasy football rankings
- Start 'em sit 'em Week 9
- Waiver wire pickups
- Fantasy sleepers
- Rest of season rankings
- Week 9 kicker rankings
- Week 9 defense rankings