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Start Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 11:31 AM ET.

Start Caleb Williams over Justin Herbert

Start

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · vs TB

Market projects
18.8
fantasy pts
TB D vs QB
13.1
4th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside
Rising
66 of 100 at QB
Snap share
97%
Through Week 8
Sit

Justin Herbert

QB · LAC · vs HOU

Market projects
12.4
fantasy pts
HOU D vs QB
18.5
13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside
Moderate
63 of 100 at QB
Snap share
100%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Justin Herbert for Caleb Williams?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games), Justin Herbert 125 (13.9 a game over 9 games). For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over Justin Herbert, 18.8 to 12.4 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Caleb Williams over Justin Herbert in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Caleb Williams at 18.8 points and Justin Herbert at 12.4, a gap of 6.4. Caleb Williams's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 87 and Justin Herbert at 112.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 18.8 fantasy points for Caleb Williams, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Caleb Williams is 250 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.3 rushing touchdowns (11, 12 and 8 market sources).

Player markets imply 12.4 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Justin Herbert is 202 passing yards, 0-1 passing touchdowns, 23 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (6, 8, 7 and 7 market sources).

That puts Caleb Williams 6.4 points ahead of Justin Herbert on the market projections.

Week 9 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI host TB on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

TB allowed 13.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 8 games, the 4th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 220 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against TB, with 1.5 interceptions a game.

Justin Herbert and LAC host HOU on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

HOU allowed 18.5 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 263 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against HOU, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Justin Herbert has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Justin Herbert is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Caleb Williams played 97 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 186 times and threw an average of 7.5 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 7 against NE: 69 of 69 snaps, 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 8 against SEA: 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Through Week 8, Justin Herbert played 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 255 times and threw an average of 7.4 air yards per attempt.

Justin Herbert, Week 4 against SEA: 71 of 71 snaps, 19 of 31 passes for 189 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 6 carries for 40 yards.

Justin Herbert, Week 5 against DEN: 67 of 67 snaps, 14 of 23 passes for 121 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 54 yards.

Justin Herbert, Week 6 against KC: 68 of 68 snaps, 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 26 yards.

Justin Herbert, Week 8 against LAR: 61 of 61 snaps, 24 of 31 passes for 257 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 15 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Justin Herbert for Caleb Williams?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games), Justin Herbert 125 (13.9 a game over 9 games). For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over Justin Herbert, 18.8 to 12.4 projected PPR points.

  • Should I drop Caleb Williams for Justin Herbert?

    No. Keep Caleb Williams: he projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games), Justin Herbert 125 (13.9 a game over 9 games). For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over Justin Herbert, 18.8 to 12.4 projected PPR points.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board