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Start Joe Burrow or Caleb Williams? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 3:46 AM ET.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Madrid, set your lineup before then.

Start Joe Burrow over Caleb Williams

Start

Joe Burrow

QB · CIN · at ATL

Market projects
22.8
fantasy pts
ATL D vs QB
18.0
13th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
99%
Through Week 8
Sit

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · vs TB

Market projects
18.0
recent weeks avg
TB D vs QB
14.7
6th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
97%
Through Week 7

Should I drop Caleb Williams for Joe Burrow?

Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games) and Joe Burrow 154 (17.1 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Joe Burrow over Caleb Williams.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Joe Burrow over Caleb Williams in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Joe Burrow at 22.8 points and Caleb Williams at 18.0, a gap of 4.8. Joe Burrow's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Caleb Williams this week yet, so his 18.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (18.0, 18.5 and 17.6); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Joe Burrow at ADP 55 and Caleb Williams at 87.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 22.8 fantasy points for Joe Burrow, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Joe Burrow is 272 passing yards, 2-3 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (5, 7 and 7 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Caleb Williams yet. His market-based projections were 18.0, 18.5 and 17.6 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 18.0, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Joe Burrow 4.8 points ahead of Caleb Williams on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Joe Burrow and CIN visit ATL on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

ATL allowed 18.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 271 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against ATL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

Caleb Williams and CHI host TB on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

TB allowed 14.7 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 234 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against TB, with 1.1 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Joe Burrow has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Joe Burrow is not on the injury report.

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Joe Burrow played 99 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 289 times and threw an average of 7.6 air yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow, Week 4 against JAX: 76 of 76 snaps, 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 6 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 5 against MIA: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 32 passes for 190 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 7 against BAL: 50 of 53 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 8 against TEN: 38 of 48 passes for 462 yards, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, 3 carries for 10 yards.

Through Week 7, Caleb Williams played 97 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 150 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 7 against NE: 69 of 69 snaps, 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Caleb Williams for Joe Burrow?

    Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games) and Joe Burrow 154 (17.1 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Joe Burrow over Caleb Williams.

  • Should I drop Joe Burrow for Caleb Williams?

    Not on these numbers alone. Joe Burrow projects 154 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (17.1 a game over 9 games) and Caleb Williams 148 (18.5 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Joe Burrow over Caleb Williams.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board