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Start Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 4:41 AM ET.

Start Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence

Start

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · vs TB

Market projects
18.0
recent weeks avg
TB D vs QB
14.7
6th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
97%
Through Week 7
Sit

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX · at BAL

Market projects
17.1
fantasy pts
BAL D vs QB
17.3
16th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
97%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Caleb Williams for Trevor Lawrence?

Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games) and Trevor Lawrence 155 (17.2 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Caleb Williams at 18.0 points and Trevor Lawrence at 17.1, a gap of 0.9. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Caleb Williams this week yet, so his 18.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (18.0, 18.5 and 17.6); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 87 and Trevor Lawrence at 97.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Caleb Williams yet. His market-based projections were 18.0, 18.5 and 17.6 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 18.0, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

Player markets imply 17.2 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Trevor Lawrence is 237 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 14, 9 and 11 market sources).

That puts Caleb Williams 0.9 points ahead of Trevor Lawrence on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI host TB on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

TB allowed 14.7 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 234 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against TB, with 1.1 interceptions a game.

Trevor Lawrence and JAX visit BAL on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

BAL allowed 17.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 16th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 235 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against BAL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Trevor Lawrence is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 7, Caleb Williams played 97 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 150 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 7 against NE: 69 of 69 snaps, 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Through Week 8, Trevor Lawrence played 97 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 219 times and threw an average of 8.3 air yards per attempt.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 4 against CIN: 61 of 61 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 227 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 5 against PHI: 72 of 72 snaps, 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 25 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 6 against HOU: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 8 against IND: 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 10 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Caleb Williams for Trevor Lawrence?

    Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games) and Trevor Lawrence 155 (17.2 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.

  • Should I drop Trevor Lawrence for Caleb Williams?

    Not on these numbers alone. Trevor Lawrence projects 155 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 9 games) and Caleb Williams 148 (18.5 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board