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Start Trevor Lawrence or Baker Mayfield? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 3:46 AM ET.

Start Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield

Start

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX · at BAL

Market projects
17.1
fantasy pts
BAL D vs QB
17.3
16th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
97%
Through Week 8
Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CHI

Market projects
16.0
recent weeks avg
CHI D vs QB
19.9
10th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
96%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Trevor Lawrence?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Trevor Lawrence projects 155 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 9 games), Baker Mayfield 129 (16.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Trevor Lawrence at 17.1 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.0, a gap of 1.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Baker Mayfield this week yet, so his 16.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7 and 8 (16.0 and 16.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Trevor Lawrence at ADP 97 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.2 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Trevor Lawrence is 237 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 14, 9 and 11 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Baker Mayfield yet. His market-based projections were 16.0 and 16.0 points in Weeks 7 and 8, an average of 16.0, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Trevor Lawrence 1.1 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Trevor Lawrence and JAX visit BAL on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

BAL allowed 17.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 16th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 235 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against BAL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CHI on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

CHI allowed 19.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 241 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CHI, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Trevor Lawrence is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Trevor Lawrence played 97 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 219 times and threw an average of 8.3 air yards per attempt.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 4 against CIN: 61 of 61 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 227 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 5 against PHI: 72 of 72 snaps, 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 25 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 6 against HOU: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 8 against IND: 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 10 yards.

Through Week 8, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 134 times and threw an average of 8.4 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 8 against ATL: 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 15 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Trevor Lawrence?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Trevor Lawrence projects 155 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 9 games), Baker Mayfield 129 (16.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield.

  • Should I drop Trevor Lawrence for Baker Mayfield?

    No. Keep Trevor Lawrence: he projects 155 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 9 games), Baker Mayfield 129 (16.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board