Start Trevor Lawrence or Matthew Stafford? Week 8

Updated Oct 28, 8:46 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Matthew Stafford over Trevor Lawrence

Stafford projects lower, 17.4 to 17.9, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 75 for Stafford, 97 for Lawrence.

Start

Matthew Stafford

QB · LAR · vs LAC

Market projects: 17.4; fantasy pts
LAC D vs QB: 15.2; 7th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 24 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 7

Sit

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX · vs IND

Market projects: 17.9; fantasy pts
IND D vs QB: 18.1; 12th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 84 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 97%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Matthew Stafford for Trevor Lawrence?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Trevor Lawrence projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Matthew Stafford 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Trevor Lawrence. So make the move after his Week 8 game.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Matthew Stafford over Trevor Lawrence in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Matthew Stafford at 17.4 points and Trevor Lawrence at 17.9, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Matthew Stafford still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 75 against 97, and that outweighs a gap this size. Matthew Stafford's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.9 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Trevor Lawrence is 245 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns (14, 14, 13 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 17.4 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Matthew Stafford is 249 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (11, 13 and 9 market sources).

That puts Trevor Lawrence 0.5 points ahead of Matthew Stafford on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Trevor Lawrence and JAX host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 18.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 12th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 227 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against IND, with 0.3 interceptions a game.

Matthew Stafford and LAR host LAC on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LAC allowed 15.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against LAC, with 0.8 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Trevor Lawrence is not on the injury report.

Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 6, Trevor Lawrence played 97 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 200 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 3 against NE: 59 of 62 snaps, 19 of 28 passes for 182 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 25 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 4 against CIN: 61 of 61 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 227 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 5 against PHI: 72 of 72 snaps, 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 25 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 6 against HOU: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Through Week 7, Matthew Stafford played 98 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 290 times and threw an average of 8.0 air yards per attempt.

Matthew Stafford, Week 4 against PHI: 84 of 84 snaps, 32 of 51 passes for 317 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 5 against BUF: 82 of 82 snaps, 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Matthew Stafford, Week 6 against ARI: 58 of 58 snaps, 25 of 33 passes for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Matthew Stafford, Week 7 against LV: 72 of 72 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 195 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Matthew Stafford for Trevor Lawrence?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Trevor Lawrence projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Matthew Stafford 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Trevor Lawrence. So make the move after his Week 8 game.
Should I drop Trevor Lawrence for Matthew Stafford?
No. Keep Trevor Lawrence: he projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Matthew Stafford 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Trevor Lawrence.

Should I drop Matthew Stafford?