Ace Bailey vs Bennedict Mathurin: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Bennedict Mathurin 3. For that week alone, start Bennedict Mathurin: 84.3 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Ace Bailey. Over the season, Bennedict Mathurin leads in points leagues (28.1 fantasy points a game to 25.0) and Ace Bailey in 9-cat leagues (159th against 160th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 8:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #135
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.03, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #159
- -2.7 z, slot 14.03
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #103
- 28.1 FP/G, slot 9.07, $9
- 9-cat leagues
- #160
- -2.7 z, slot 14.04
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Bennedict Mathurin. 28.1 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 103rd on our board to 135th.
9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey instead, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (159th to 160th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Bennedict Mathurin in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, STL and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Bennedict Mathurin produces more: 34.6 fantasy points to 32.8, on 29.3 minutes a night against 27.4. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Bennedict Mathurin 3. For that week alone, start Bennedict Mathurin: 84.3 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Ace Bailey.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Bennedict Mathurin |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.0 | 28.1 |
| Minutes | 27.4 | 29.3 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 17.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 5.3 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 43.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 86.7% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 54 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Bennedict Mathurin |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.8 | 34.6 |
| Points | 18.0 | 21.1 |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 6.5 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 2.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Bennedict Mathurin |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | +0.1 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.6 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.3 | -0.9 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -0.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | -1.2 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +1.3 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | -0.2 |
| Total | -2.7 | -2.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting blocks, threes, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Bennedict Mathurin.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Bennedict Mathurin |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.3 (#179) | -2.8 (#206) |
| REB | -2.1 (#138) | -2.6 (#170) |
| AST | -1.9 (#147) | -2.1 (#155) |
| STL | -2.1 (#147) | -2.1 (#149) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#177) | -1.9 (#126) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#185) | -2.4 (#156) |
| FG% | -1.9 (#117) | -1.7 (#108) |
| FT% | -2.6 (#158) | -4.1 (#223) |
| TO | -3.3 (#146) | -2.5 (#122) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Bennedict Mathurin: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 30.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
- Bennedict Mathurin: 20.6 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 28.1 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Bennedict Mathurin playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Bennedict Mathurin
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Bennedict Mathurin?
Points leagues: Bennedict Mathurin. 28.1 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 103rd on our board to 135th. 9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey instead, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (159th to 160th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Bennedict Mathurin?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Bennedict Mathurin in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, STL and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Bennedict Mathurin?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Bennedict Mathurin 3. For that week alone, start Bennedict Mathurin: 84.3 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Ace Bailey.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 8:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number