Ace Bailey vs Christian Braun: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Christian Braun 2. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 47.4 for Christian Braun. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in points leagues (25.0 fantasy points a game to 23.7) and Christian Braun in 9-cat leagues (158th against 159th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #135
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.03, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #159
- -2.7 z, slot 14.03
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #151
- 23.7 FP/G, slot 13.07, $2
- 9-cat leagues
- #158
- -2.7 z, slot 14.02
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 23.7, 135th on our board to 151st.
9-cat leagues: Christian Braun instead, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (158th to 159th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Christian Braun in 5 (REB, AST, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Ace Bailey produces more: 32.8 fantasy points to 26.8, on 27.4 minutes a night against 31.8. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Christian Braun 2. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 47.4 for Christian Braun.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Christian Braun |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.0 | 23.7 |
| Minutes | 27.4 | 31.8 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 12.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 4.8 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 51.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 78.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 44 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Christian Braun |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.8 | 26.8 |
| Points | 18.0 | 13.5 |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Christian Braun |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.5 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | -0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.3 | -0.8 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -0.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | +0.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| Total | -2.7 | -2.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, assists, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Christian Braun |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.3 (#179) | -1.9 (#160) |
| REB | -2.1 (#138) | -2.4 (#155) |
| AST | -1.9 (#147) | -2.3 (#165) |
| STL | -2.1 (#147) | -1.8 (#133) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#177) | -2.0 (#131) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#185) | -2.1 (#141) |
| FG% | -1.9 (#117) | -3.5 (#181) |
| FT% | -2.6 (#158) | -2.6 (#159) |
| TO | -3.3 (#146) | -3.9 (#173) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Christian Braun: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 30.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
- Christian Braun: 22.3 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 23.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Christian Braun playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Christian Braun
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Christian Braun?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 23.7, 135th on our board to 151st. 9-cat leagues: Christian Braun instead, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (158th to 159th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Christian Braun?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Christian Braun in 5 (REB, AST, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Christian Braun?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Christian Braun 2. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 47.4 for Christian Braun.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number