Ace Bailey vs Keaton Wagler: who to start in Week 3
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Keaton Wagler 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 105.3 projected fantasy points to 73.0 for Keaton Wagler. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in both formats: 26.3 fantasy points a game to 24.3, and 137th against 252nd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 12:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
Parlae may earn a commission from price links.
- Points leagues
- #134
- 26.3 FP/G, slot 12.02, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #137
- -2.1 z, slot 12.05, $3
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #155
- 24.3 FP/G, slot 13.11, $1
- 9-cat leagues
- #252
- -4.8 z, slot 21.12
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 26.3 fantasy points per game against 24.3, 134th on our board to 155th.
9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -4.8 (137th to 252nd).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 6 (PTS, REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Keaton Wagler in 3 (AST, STL and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Keaton Wagler produces more: 35.0 fantasy points to 33.2, on 25.0 minutes a night against 28.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Keaton Wagler 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 105.3 projected fantasy points to 73.0 for Keaton Wagler.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 26.3 | 24.3 |
| Minutes | 28.5 | 25.0 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 13.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.8% | 28.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 88.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 0 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.2 | 35.0 |
| Points | 17.2 | 19.0 |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 5.0 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Turnovers | 2.0 | 3.6 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.3 | -0.6 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.0 | -0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.6 | -1.0 |
| Threes3PM | +0.1 | -0.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | -3.0 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +1.8 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | -0.7 |
| Total | -2.1 | -4.8 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Ace Bailey stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Keaton Wagler |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#142) | -4.2 (#304) |
| REB | -1.9 (#133) | -4.3 (#273) |
| AST | -1.2 (#115) | -4.7 (#292) |
| STL | -1.2 (#105) | -4.1 (#261) |
| BLK | -2.9 (#172) | -4.0 (#219) |
| 3PM | -2.2 (#161) | -4.8 (#288) |
| FG% | -1.8 (#118) | -1.9 (#122) |
| FT% | -2.0 (#144) | -6.6 (#343) |
| TO | -2.7 (#133) | -4.2 (#180) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 432 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Ace Bailey: 4 games (Mon @SAS, Wed @NOP, Fri @DAL, Sun @MIN).
- Keaton Wagler: 3 games (Mon TOR, Wed MIA, Sun NOP), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 28.9 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 26.3 on the board.
- Keaton Wagler: 21.5 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 24.3 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Keaton Wagler playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Keaton Wagler
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Keaton Wagler?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 26.3 fantasy points per game against 24.3, 134th on our board to 155th. 9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -4.8 (137th to 252nd).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Keaton Wagler?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 6 (PTS, REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Keaton Wagler in 3 (AST, STL and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 3, Ace Bailey or Keaton Wagler?
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Keaton Wagler 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 105.3 projected fantasy points to 73.0 for Keaton Wagler.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 12:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number