Herbert Jones vs Keldon Johnson: who to start in Week 1
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.2 projected fantasy points to 63.5 for Herbert Jones. Over the season, Keldon Johnson leads in both formats: 22.7 fantasy points a game to 21.2, and 167th against 168th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 23, 3:53 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #191
- 21.2 FP/G, slot 16.11
- 9-cat leagues
- #168
- -2.9 z, slot 14.12
- Points leagues
- #162
- 22.7 FP/G, slot 14.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #167
- -2.9 z, slot 14.11
Game-time decision (Mouth)
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Keldon Johnson. 22.7 fantasy points per game against 21.2, 162nd on our board to 191st.
9-cat leagues: Keldon Johnson again, -2.9 in summed z-scores against -2.9 (167th to 168th).
Category by category, Herbert Jones is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Keldon Johnson in 4 (PTS, REB, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Keldon Johnson produces more: 35.4 fantasy points to 27.5, on 23.1 minutes a night against 27.6. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.2 projected fantasy points to 63.5 for Herbert Jones.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Herbert Jones | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.2 | 22.7 |
| Minutes | 27.6 | 23.1 |
| PointsPTS | 8.6 | 13.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.3 | 5.3 |
| AssistsAST | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| StealsSTL | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 38.6% | 51.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 80.6% | 79.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 56 | 82 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Herbert Jones | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 27.5 | 35.4 |
| Points | 11.2 | 20.2 |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 8.2 |
| Assists | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| Steals | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Herbert Jones | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.4 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.1 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | +1.4 | -1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.5 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.4 | +0.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.7 | +1.2 |
| Total | -2.9 | -2.9 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Herbert Jones.
| Punt | Herbert Jones | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#134) | -2.3 (#185) |
| REB | -1.9 (#130) | -2.8 (#179) |
| AST | -2.4 (#171) | -1.8 (#140) |
| STL | -4.4 (#269) | -2.0 (#140) |
| BLK | -2.6 (#155) | -1.9 (#127) |
| 3PM | -2.7 (#170) | -2.5 (#161) |
| FG% | -1.7 (#108) | -3.7 (#194) |
| FT% | -2.9 (#172) | -3.0 (#175) |
| TO | -3.7 (#165) | -4.3 (#186) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Herbert Jones: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
- Keldon Johnson: 3 games (Tue OKC, Fri HOU, Sat @DAL), 1 back-to-back, listed GTD.
Recent games
- Herbert Jones: 9.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.2 on the board.
- Keldon Johnson: 20.3 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 22.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Herbert Jones playing tonight? · Is Keldon Johnson playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Herbert Jones or Keldon Johnson?
Points leagues: Keldon Johnson. 22.7 fantasy points per game against 21.2, 162nd on our board to 191st. 9-cat leagues: Keldon Johnson again, -2.9 in summed z-scores against -2.9 (167th to 168th).
Who wins more categories, Herbert Jones or Keldon Johnson?
Category by category, Herbert Jones is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Keldon Johnson in 4 (PTS, REB, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Herbert Jones or Keldon Johnson?
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.2 projected fantasy points to 63.5 for Herbert Jones.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 23, 2026 at 3:53 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number