Brook Lopez vs Keldon Johnson: who to start in Week 1
Brook Lopez plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.2 projected fantasy points to 60.8 for Brook Lopez. Over the season, Keldon Johnson leads in points leagues (22.7 fantasy points a game to 20.3) and Brook Lopez in 9-cat leagues (165th against 167th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 23, 9:47 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #202
- 20.3 FP/G, slot 17.10
- 9-cat leagues
- #165
- -2.9 z, slot 14.09
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #162
- 22.7 FP/G, slot 14.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #167
- -2.9 z, slot 14.11
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Keldon Johnson. 22.7 fantasy points per game against 20.3, 162nd on our board to 202nd.
9-cat leagues: Brook Lopez instead, -2.9 in summed z-scores against -2.9 (165th to 167th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Brook Lopez is ahead in 2 (BLK and 3PM) and Keldon Johnson in 5 (PTS, REB, STL, FG% and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Keldon Johnson produces more: 35.4 fantasy points to 33.0, on 23.1 minutes a night against 22.1. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Brook Lopez plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.2 projected fantasy points to 60.8 for Brook Lopez.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Brook Lopez | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 20.3 | 22.7 |
| Minutes | 22.1 | 23.1 |
| PointsPTS | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| AssistsAST | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.4% | 51.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 78.6% | 79.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 75 | 82 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Brook Lopez | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.0 | 35.4 |
| Points | 14.6 | 20.2 |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 8.2 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Brook Lopez | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | -1.1 | -1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | +1.0 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.5 | +0.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.0 | +0.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Total | -2.9 | -2.9 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting blocks, threes and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Keldon Johnson.
| Punt | Brook Lopez | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#137) | -2.3 (#185) |
| REB | -2.2 (#145) | -2.8 (#179) |
| AST | -1.7 (#130) | -1.8 (#140) |
| STL | -1.9 (#134) | -2.0 (#140) |
| BLK | -4.1 (#235) | -1.9 (#127) |
| 3PM | -2.7 (#173) | -2.5 (#161) |
| FG% | -2.5 (#135) | -3.7 (#194) |
| FT% | -2.8 (#169) | -3.0 (#175) |
| TO | -4.3 (#188) | -4.3 (#186) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 393 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Brook Lopez: 3 games (Wed SAC, Fri @LAL, Sun @OKC).
- Keldon Johnson: 3 games (Tue OKC, Fri HOU, Sat @DAL), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Brook Lopez: 35.7 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 20.3 on the board.
- Keldon Johnson: 20.3 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 22.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Brook Lopez playing tonight? · Is Keldon Johnson playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Brook Lopez or Keldon Johnson?
Points leagues: Keldon Johnson. 22.7 fantasy points per game against 20.3, 162nd on our board to 202nd. 9-cat leagues: Brook Lopez instead, -2.9 in summed z-scores against -2.9 (165th to 167th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Brook Lopez or Keldon Johnson?
Category by category, Brook Lopez is ahead in 2 (BLK and 3PM) and Keldon Johnson in 5 (PTS, REB, STL, FG% and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Brook Lopez or Keldon Johnson?
Brook Lopez plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 68.2 projected fantasy points to 60.8 for Brook Lopez.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 23, 2026 at 9:47 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number