Jaxson Hayes vs Keldon Johnson: who to start in Week 1
Jaxson Hayes plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 66.8 projected fantasy points to 56.9 for Jaxson Hayes. Over the season, Keldon Johnson leads in both formats: 22.3 fantasy points a game to 19.0, and 174th against 176th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 2:29 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #221
- 19.0 FP/G, slot 19.05
- 9-cat leagues
- #176
- -3.1 z, slot 15.08
- Points leagues
- #162
- 22.3 FP/G, slot 14.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #174
- -3.1 z, slot 15.06
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Keldon Johnson. 22.3 fantasy points per game against 19.0, 162nd on our board to 221st.
9-cat leagues: Keldon Johnson again, -3.1 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (174th to 176th).
Category by category, Jaxson Hayes is ahead in 3 (BLK, FG% and TO) and Keldon Johnson in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Jaxson Hayes produces more: 35.6 fantasy points to 34.8, on 19.2 minutes a night against 23.0. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jaxson Hayes plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 66.8 projected fantasy points to 56.9 for Jaxson Hayes.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jaxson Hayes | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 19.0 | 22.3 |
| Minutes | 19.2 | 23.0 |
| PointsPTS | 7.9 | 12.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| AssistsAST | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Field goal %FG% | 76.5% | 52.3% |
| Free throw %FT% | 63.9% | 78.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 66 | 82 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jaxson Hayes | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 35.6 | 34.8 |
| Points | 14.9 | 19.3 |
| Rebounds | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| Assists | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 0.1 | 1.7 |
| Turnovers | 0.9 | 1.4 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jaxson Hayes | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.5 | -0.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -1.3 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.4 | -1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.9 | -1.2 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | -0.6 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.9 | +0.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.7 | +1.2 |
| Total | -3.1 | -3.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, assists, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jaxson Hayes.
| Punt | Jaxson Hayes | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.7 (#150) | -2.4 (#191) |
| REB | -2.8 (#178) | -3.1 (#195) |
| AST | -1.9 (#146) | -2.0 (#150) |
| STL | -1.9 (#136) | -2.1 (#147) |
| BLK | -4.4 (#246) | -2.1 (#142) |
| 3PM | -1.5 (#113) | -2.5 (#167) |
| FG% | -5.9 (#290) | -4.0 (#207) |
| FT% | -1.9 (#134) | -3.0 (#179) |
| TO | -5.1 (#213) | -4.4 (#189) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jaxson Hayes: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Keldon Johnson: 3 games (Tue OKC, Fri HOU, Sat @DAL), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Jaxson Hayes: 33.8 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 19.0 on the board.
- Keldon Johnson: 19.2 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 22.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jaxson Hayes playing tonight? · Is Keldon Johnson playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jaxson Hayes or Keldon Johnson?
Points leagues: Keldon Johnson. 22.3 fantasy points per game against 19.0, 162nd on our board to 221st. 9-cat leagues: Keldon Johnson again, -3.1 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (174th to 176th).
Who wins more categories, Jaxson Hayes or Keldon Johnson?
Category by category, Jaxson Hayes is ahead in 3 (BLK, FG% and TO) and Keldon Johnson in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jaxson Hayes or Keldon Johnson?
Jaxson Hayes plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Keldon Johnson: 66.8 projected fantasy points to 56.9 for Jaxson Hayes.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 2:29 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number