Marvin Bagley III vs Steven Adams: who to start in Week 1
Marvin Bagley III plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Steven Adams 3. For that week alone, start Marvin Bagley III: 41.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Steven Adams. Over the season, Marvin Bagley III leads in both formats: 20.7 fantasy points a game to 20.6, and 208th against 258th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 8:28 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #194
- 20.7 FP/G, slot 17.02
- 9-cat leagues
- #208
- -4.0 z, slot 18.04
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #196
- 20.6 FP/G, slot 17.04
- 9-cat leagues
- #258
- -4.9 z, slot 22.06
Out (Ankle)
The call
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 20.7 fantasy points per game against 20.6, 194th on our board to 196th.
9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III again, -4.0 in summed z-scores against -4.9 (208th to 258th).
Category by category, Marvin Bagley III is ahead in 5 (PTS, BLK, 3PM, FG% and FT%) and Steven Adams in 3 (REB, AST and STL).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 33.8, on 18.8 minutes a night against 21.9. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Marvin Bagley III plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Steven Adams 3. For that week alone, start Marvin Bagley III: 41.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Steven Adams.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Marvin Bagley III | Steven Adams |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 20.7 | 20.6 |
| Minutes | 18.8 | 21.9 |
| PointsPTS | 9.6 | 5.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.8 | 8.2 |
| AssistsAST | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| StealsSTL | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 61.7% | 51.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 65.1% | 58.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 60 | 32 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Marvin Bagley III | Steven Adams |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 39.5 | 33.8 |
| Points | 18.4 | 9.4 |
| Rebounds | 11.1 | 13.5 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Threes | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Marvin Bagley III | Steven Adams |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.2 | -1.9 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.0 | +1.1 |
| AssistsAST | -1.2 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.7 | -0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Threes3PM | -1.3 | -1.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.4 | +0.2 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.0 | -1.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| Total | -4.0 | -4.9 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Marvin Bagley III stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Marvin Bagley III | Steven Adams |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.8 (#209) | -3.1 (#222) |
| REB | -4.3 (#265) | -6.5 (#355) |
| AST | -2.9 (#187) | -3.9 (#234) |
| STL | -2.4 (#158) | -4.1 (#241) |
| BLK | -4.2 (#235) | -5.2 (#282) |
| 3PM | -2.6 (#171) | -3.1 (#186) |
| FG% | -6.1 (#296) | -6.1 (#297) |
| FT% | -2.9 (#174) | -3.2 (#183) |
| TO | -5.2 (#216) | -6.2 (#254) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
- Steven Adams: 3 games (Wed DAL, Fri @SAS, Sat @ATL), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
Recent games
- Marvin Bagley III: 7.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.7 on the board.
- Steven Adams: 10.9 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 20.6 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight? · Is Steven Adams playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Marvin Bagley III or Steven Adams?
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 20.7 fantasy points per game against 20.6, 194th on our board to 196th. 9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III again, -4.0 in summed z-scores against -4.9 (208th to 258th).
Who wins more categories, Marvin Bagley III or Steven Adams?
Category by category, Marvin Bagley III is ahead in 5 (PTS, BLK, 3PM, FG% and FT%) and Steven Adams in 3 (REB, AST and STL).
Who should I start in Week 1, Marvin Bagley III or Steven Adams?
Marvin Bagley III plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Steven Adams 3. For that week alone, start Marvin Bagley III: 41.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Steven Adams.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 8:28 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number