Mitchell Robinson vs Sam Merrill: who to start in Week 1
Mitchell Robinson plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Mitchell Robinson: 45.3 projected fantasy points to 41.4 for Sam Merrill. Over the season, Mitchell Robinson leads in points leagues (22.6 fantasy points a game to 20.7) and Sam Merrill in 9-cat leagues (146th against 147th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 23, 3:53 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #164
- 22.6 FP/G, slot 14.08
- 9-cat leagues
- #147
- -2.4 z, slot 13.03, $2
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #197
- 20.7 FP/G, slot 17.05
- 9-cat leagues
- #146
- -2.4 z, slot 13.02, $2
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Mitchell Robinson. 22.6 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 164th on our board to 197th.
9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill instead, -2.4 in summed z-scores against -2.4 (146th to 147th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Mitchell Robinson is ahead in 4 (REB, STL, BLK and FG%) and Sam Merrill in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Mitchell Robinson produces more: 41.8 fantasy points to 28.3, on 19.5 minutes a night against 26.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Mitchell Robinson plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Mitchell Robinson: 45.3 projected fantasy points to 41.4 for Sam Merrill.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Mitchell Robinson | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.6 | 20.7 |
| Minutes | 19.5 | 26.3 |
| PointsPTS | 5.6 | 12.3 |
| ReboundsREB | 8.4 | 2.7 |
| AssistsAST | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| Field goal %FG% | 73.4% | 45.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 37.8% | 85.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 60 | 52 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Mitchell Robinson | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 41.8 | 28.3 |
| Points | 10.3 | 16.8 |
| Rebounds | 15.5 | 3.7 |
| Assists | 1.6 | 3.3 |
| Steals | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 2.3 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Mitchell Robinson | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.9 | -0.7 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.2 | -1.4 |
| AssistsAST | -1.4 | -0.6 |
| StealsSTL | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | +1.1 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | +1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.4 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -2.3 | +0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.4 | +1.4 |
| Total | -2.4 | -2.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Mitchell Robinson.
| Punt | Mitchell Robinson | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.5 (#83) | -1.7 (#150) |
| REB | -4.1 (#255) | -1.0 (#87) |
| AST | -1.0 (#97) | -1.8 (#142) |
| STL | -2.2 (#154) | -1.5 (#116) |
| BLK | -4.0 (#226) | -1.3 (#101) |
| 3PM | -0.6 (#81) | -3.8 (#218) |
| FG% | -4.7 (#242) | -1.9 (#118) |
| FT% | -0.0 (#63) | -2.7 (#162) |
| TO | -4.0 (#174) | -3.9 (#171) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Mitchell Robinson: 2 games (Tue @DET, Fri NYK).
- Sam Merrill: 2 games (Thu @PHI, Sat BKN).
Recent games
- Mitchell Robinson: 16.1 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 22.6 on the board.
- Sam Merrill: 17.0 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 20.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Mitchell Robinson playing tonight? · Is Sam Merrill playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Mitchell Robinson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Mitchell Robinson or Sam Merrill?
Points leagues: Mitchell Robinson. 22.6 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 164th on our board to 197th. 9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill instead, -2.4 in summed z-scores against -2.4 (146th to 147th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Mitchell Robinson or Sam Merrill?
Category by category, Mitchell Robinson is ahead in 4 (REB, STL, BLK and FG%) and Sam Merrill in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Mitchell Robinson or Sam Merrill?
Mitchell Robinson plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Mitchell Robinson: 45.3 projected fantasy points to 41.4 for Sam Merrill.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 23, 2026 at 3:53 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number