Should I drop Matthew Stafford for Baker Mayfield?

Not on these numbers alone. Matthew Stafford projects 164 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.4 a game over 10 games) and Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield, 18.3 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

Start Matthew Stafford or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 4:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield

Start

Matthew Stafford

QB · LAR · at LV

Market projects: 18.3; fantasy pts
LV D vs QB: 21.2; 6th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 63 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 6

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.0; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 37 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Matthew Stafford?

Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games) and Matthew Stafford 164 (16.4 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield, 18.3 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Matthew Stafford at 18.3 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.0, a gap of 2.2. Matthew Stafford's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Matthew Stafford at ADP 75 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 13, 7 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 18.3 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Matthew Stafford is 271 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and under 0.1 rushing touchdowns (11, 14 and 12 market sources).

That puts Matthew Stafford 2.2 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Matthew Stafford and LAR visit LV on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

LV allowed 21.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 6th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 254 yards and 2.2 touchdowns a game against LV, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Matthew Stafford has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 6, Matthew Stafford played 98 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 260 times and threw an average of 8.3 air yards per attempt.

Matthew Stafford, Week 3 against DEN: 86 of 86 snaps, 30 of 53 passes for 390 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 13 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 4 against PHI: 84 of 84 snaps, 32 of 51 passes for 317 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 5 against BUF: 82 of 82 snaps, 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Matthew Stafford, Week 6 against ARI: 58 of 58 snaps, 25 of 33 passes for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Matthew Stafford?
Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games) and Matthew Stafford 164 (16.4 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield, 18.3 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Matthew Stafford for Baker Mayfield?
Not on these numbers alone. Matthew Stafford projects 164 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.4 a game over 10 games) and Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield, 18.3 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.