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Start Trevor Lawrence or Tyler Shough? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 3:36 AM ET.

Start Trevor Lawrence over Tyler Shough

Start

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX · at BAL

Market projects
17.1
fantasy pts
BAL D vs QB
17.3
16th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
97%
Through Week 8
Sit

Tyler Shough

QB · NO · vs CLE

Market projects
16.3
recent weeks avg
CLE D vs QB
15.4
8th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Through Week 7

Should I drop Tyler Shough for Trevor Lawrence?

Not on these numbers alone. Tyler Shough projects 151 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.8 a game over 9 games) and Trevor Lawrence 155 (17.2 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Trevor Lawrence over Tyler Shough.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Trevor Lawrence over Tyler Shough in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Trevor Lawrence at 17.1 points and Tyler Shough at 16.3, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Tyler Shough this week yet, so his 16.3 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 7 (16.6 and 16.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Trevor Lawrence at ADP 97 and Tyler Shough at 147.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.2 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Trevor Lawrence is 237 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 14, 9 and 11 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Tyler Shough yet. His market-based projections were 16.6 and 16.0 points in Weeks 6 and 7, an average of 16.3, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Trevor Lawrence 0.8 points ahead of Tyler Shough on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Trevor Lawrence and JAX visit BAL on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

BAL allowed 17.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 16th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 235 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against BAL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

Tyler Shough and NO host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CLE allowed 15.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 221 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CLE, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Trevor Lawrence is not on the injury report.

Tyler Shough is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Trevor Lawrence played 97 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 219 times and threw an average of 8.3 air yards per attempt.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 4 against CIN: 61 of 61 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 227 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 5 against PHI: 72 of 72 snaps, 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 25 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 6 against HOU: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 8 against IND: 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 10 yards.

Through Week 7, Tyler Shough played 100 percent of NO snaps, dropped back 296 times and threw an average of 7.3 air yards per attempt.

Tyler Shough, Week 4 against ATL: 74 of 74 snaps, 30 of 48 passes for 286 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 5 yards.

Tyler Shough, Week 5 against MIN: 45 of 45 snaps, 16 of 25 passes for 96 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Tyler Shough, Week 6 against NYG: 70 of 72 snaps, 16 of 30 passes for 144 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 33 yards.

Tyler Shough, Week 7 against PIT: 57 of 57 snaps, 30 of 38 passes for 278 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 7 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Tyler Shough played 11 games for NO and scored 164.0 PPR points, 14.9 a game, finishing QB26.

He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2384 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and ran 45 times for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Tyler Shough for Trevor Lawrence?

    Not on these numbers alone. Tyler Shough projects 151 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.8 a game over 9 games) and Trevor Lawrence 155 (17.2 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Trevor Lawrence over Tyler Shough.

  • Should I drop Trevor Lawrence for Tyler Shough?

    Not on these numbers alone. Trevor Lawrence projects 155 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 9 games) and Tyler Shough 151 (16.8 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Trevor Lawrence over Tyler Shough.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board