Ace Bailey vs Obi Toppin: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Obi Toppin 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 64.6 for Obi Toppin. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in both formats: 25.0 fantasy points a game to 21.5, and 162nd against 163rd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 2:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #135
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.03, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #162
- -2.7 z, slot 14.06
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #180
- 21.5 FP/G, slot 15.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #163
- -2.7 z, slot 14.07
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 21.5, 135th on our board to 180th.
9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (162nd to 163rd).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Obi Toppin in 5 (REB, AST, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Obi Toppin produces more: 41.8 fantasy points to 32.8, on 18.5 minutes a night against 27.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Obi Toppin 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 64.6 for Obi Toppin.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.0 | 21.5 |
| Minutes | 27.4 | 18.5 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 12.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 50.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 89.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 24 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.8 | 41.8 |
| Points | 18.0 | 23.7 |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 8.5 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 4.2 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 2.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.7 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | -1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.3 | -1.2 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -0.1 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | +0.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +0.7 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +1.0 |
| Total | -2.7 | -2.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, steals, blocks and threes flips the 9-cat answer to Obi Toppin.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.2 (#178) | -2.0 (#164) |
| REB | -2.0 (#134) | -2.1 (#138) |
| AST | -1.9 (#148) | -2.0 (#151) |
| STL | -2.1 (#146) | -1.5 (#117) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#174) | -1.6 (#111) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#186) | -2.7 (#172) |
| FG% | -1.9 (#114) | -3.1 (#161) |
| FT% | -2.5 (#161) | -3.4 (#191) |
| TO | -3.2 (#147) | -3.8 (#168) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Obi Toppin: 3 games (Wed @NOP, Fri DAL, Sun @BKN).
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 23.4 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
- Obi Toppin: 26.2 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 21.5 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Obi Toppin playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Obi Toppin?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 21.5, 135th on our board to 180th. 9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (162nd to 163rd).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Obi Toppin?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Obi Toppin in 5 (REB, AST, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Obi Toppin?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Obi Toppin 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 64.6 for Obi Toppin.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 2:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number